Special Marine Warning 97, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

142 
FZUS71 KPHI 060312
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ANZ450-451-060415-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0097.000000T0000Z-120806T0415Z/
1112 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...

INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...
BEACH HAVEN...FORKED RIVER...GARDEN STATE NORTH REEF...GARDEN STATE
SOUTH REEF...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...LITTLE EGG INLET...LITTLE
EGG REEF...MANASQUAN INLET...MONMOUTH BEACH...NORTH BEACH HAVEN...
SANDY HOOK REEF...SEA BRIGHT...SEA GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK...SHARK
RIVER REEF AND SHIP BOTTOM...

AT 1110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM 7 NM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK REEF TO SEASIDE PARK...OR FROM
4 NM NORTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK TO OCEAN GATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
KNOTS.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  OVER SEA GIRT REEF BY 1120 PM EDT...
  OVER SHARK RIVER REEF BY 1150 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 7364 3965 7378 3925 7405 3925 7406
      3948 7431 3958 7455 3954 7432 3972 7418
      3972 7420 3982 7421 3993 7411 3995 7420
      4004 7406 4005 7411 4005 7413 4016 7402
      4038 7400 4034 7409 4036 7409 4044 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 245DEG 31KT 4050 7391 4015 7399
          3995 7411

$$

HAYES

684 
FZUS71 KPHI 060333
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ANZ450-451-060415-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0097.000000T0000Z-120806T0415Z/
1133 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...
INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...FORKED RIVER...
LAVALLETTE...MANASQUAN INLET...MONMOUTH BEACH...SANDY HOOK REEF...SEA
BRIGHT...SEA GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

AT 1131 PM EDT...FROM 15 NM NORTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK REEF TO 5 NM
SOUTHEAST OF AXEL CARLSON REEF...OR FROM ATLANTIC BEACH TO 5 NM
SOUTHEAST OF AXEL CARLSON REEF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

A WIND GUST TO 61 KNOTS WAS RECORDED EARLIER AT SANDY HOOK IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  OVER SHARK RIVER REEF BY 1150 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 7364 3978 7375 3982 7421 3984 7415
      3987 7417 3992 7411 3995 7418 3995 7412
      3999 7414 4005 7407 4006 7412 4007 7406
      4010 7409 4016 7402 4038 7400 4035 7409
      4040 7403 4039 7399 4044 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 245DEG 31KT 4057 7369 4023 7377
          4003 7390

$$

HAYES

829 
FZUS71 KPHI 060413
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

ANZ450-451-060423-
/O.EXP.KPHI.MA.W.0097.000000T0000Z-120806T0415Z/
1213 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM EDT...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...

INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...FORKED RIVER...
LAVALLETTE...MANASQUAN INLET...MONMOUTH BEACH...SANDY HOOK REEF...SEA
BRIGHT...SEA GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

LAT...LON 4025 7364 3978 7375 3982 7421 3984 7415
      3987 7417 3992 7411 3995 7418 3995 7412
      3999 7414 4005 7407 4006 7412 4007 7406
      4010 7409 4016 7402 4038 7400 4035 7409
      4040 7403 4039 7399 4044 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 245DEG 31KT 4071 7328 4037 7336
          4018 7349

$$

HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM TORONTO TO NEAR CLEVELAND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW YORK STATE AND THEN QUEBEC NEXT
WEEKEND...PULLING ITS STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST OF THE WATCHES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ROLL OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE POPS DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT,
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOLLOWING WHAT
OCCURS AFTER THIS SQUALL LINE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY TOOK AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS WITH SOME TWEAKS THEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE OF GENERAL
TROUGH TO EVEN ZONAL FLOW OCCURRING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LEFT BEHIND
THEREFORE IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT
EVENTUALLY CLEARS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH PERHAPS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
HANGING ON TO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS LONGER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON FOR A TIME, AND THEREFORE SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A TIME.

ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR, THEREFORE WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND REGARDING DEW POINTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLOUD COVER HANGING ON FOR AWHILE AS THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR TRIES
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION DEPENDING ON HOW ANY CONVECTION THAT LINGERS BEHAVES, THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS LEFTOVER FOR THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE DRIER
AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN AT 500 MB: POSITIVE TILT TROUGHING GRADUALLY EVOLVES
AND AMPLIFIES WITH TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SO DESPITE THE BRIEF RESPITE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS IN ITS FAMILIAR
REFRAIN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS: DAILY CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN IT COOLS TO NEAR NORMAL. TEMPS COULD BE 5 OR 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
BELOW NORMAL DAY IN THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS TUESDAY AND
MAYBE SUNDAY.

12Z GFS/GGEM WERE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET IN
THE OVERALL FCST.

I THINK WED-SAT WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
THE FCST IS THU/FRI.

HAZARDS:

WED-SAT...NARROW SWATHS OF AFTN/EVE SVR - FF PROBABLE AND SEEMS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...MOSTLY IN E PA AND NNJ WHERE FFG IS LOWER
AND THEREFORE MORE VULNERABLE. THIS MORNING THE 1 HR GRIDDED FFG
IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES UP THERE AND THE 6 HR 2.5. WEDNESDAY IS THE
LOW CONFIDENCE DAY FOR ANY TSTMS.

TT WED AND THU AFTN WILL BE NEAR 49-50 WITH DAILY SWI NEAR -3 AND
KI IN THE LOW-MID 30S. LOW SHEAR DAYS ARE MODELED WED/THU WITH
STRONGER SVR CRITERIA SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN THERE SEEMS TO BE BEST CHC OF A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK. IF THE
12Z ECMWF SOLN IS CORRECT...THE RISK FOR SATURDAY IN THIS AFD IS
OVERSTATED.

SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. I MAY HAVE FCST TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE IN THE FCST OR TOO MUCH CHC OF THUNDER.

HEAT INDEX MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S THU AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI?
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA ATTM.

THIS FORECAST FROM 00Z TUE-00Z THU IS 12Z/5 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KPHI FCST AND THEN AFTER 00Z THU...IS BASED ON THE
14Z HPCGUIDE BLENDED WITH A BIT OF 12Z GFS MEX GUIDANCE, AND MODIFIED
WITH CHECKS OF THE 00Z-12Z/5 ECMWF 2M AND 850 TEMPS AS WELL AS
SWI/TT/KI FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AFTER A RELATIVELY WONDERFUL MONDAY
NIGHT OF SLEEPING CONDITIONS WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...A VERY FINE
TUESDAY AFTN IS FORESEEN...STILL WITH LOW DEWPOINTS! JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE SHOULD LOVE THIS WEATHER!!! LIGHT WIND.

WED-THU...AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY I95 NWWD. COULD BE
STARTING ANOTHER HEATWAVE ON WED WHEN 90-93F SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH
THE PRIMARY QUESTION...DOES IT CONTINUE THE REQUIRED 3RD DAY-FRIDAY?
TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH 16-17C AT 850MB.
MAINLY S WIND UNDER 15 KTS. PWAT UNDER 1.5 INCHES TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY INCREASES TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATE THU. ML CAPE
1000J ON WED GROWS TO 1600J THU. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT LATE THU?

FRI/SAT...LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES OVER NYS IN RESPONSE TO MODELED
SUBSTANTIAL SUMMER TROUGHING OVER THE E GREAT LAKES. LOOKS VERY
UNSTABLE AT TIMES WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT FAVORING ORGANIZED
TSTM PRODUCTION EA AFTN. IF THE SHOWERS HOLD OFF TIL 2PM ISH...THE
17C TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT 90-95F...SIMILAR TO TODAY-SUNDAY
THE 5TH. SSW WIND G 15-20 KTS. PWAT NEAR 1.8 FRIDAY EASES TO 1.5
INCHES SAT. ML CAPE 1000-1500J. 0-6KM SHEAR 35-45 KT FRI-SAT.

SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.  COOLER WITH STILL A GOOD
CHANCE OF A HEAVY LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM...MAINLY OVER E PA NW NJ
IN ASSN WITH TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE VERTICAL MIXING WANES, THEN AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS AND HAS GENERALLY
CLEARED KRDG AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT KABE. THE TAFS WERE AMENDED
TO SPEED OF THE ARRIVAL TIME. A VFR FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED
THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER WE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SUB-VFR AND
STRONGER WINDS DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE THUNDER SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED THEREFORE JUST
CARRIED A SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDER
AFTER THIS LINE CLEARS THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW SOME AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY,
THEREFORE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDER MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY
FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, AN IMPROVING DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AS CLOUDS ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT, WE
SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SCATTERED OUT THE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING. THE WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE UP TO ABOUT 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE /LOW PROB/ AT
KMIV AND KRDG VERY LATE. LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WIND.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KBWI-KGED LINE. LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT LOW PROB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER E PA. S-SW WIND G UNDER 15 KTS.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF KPHL. S-SW WIND G 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR AWHILE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THERE IS NEARLY 30 KNOTS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WITH
DECENT MIXING, THIS HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ENOUGH COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS TO ALLOW THE MIXING TO WANE. BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT IN EFFECT, HOWEVER
OVER THE BAY IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE SHAVED BACK AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN TO ABOUT 5 FEET. FOR MONDAY, THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH A WIND
SHIFT OCCURRING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO FURTHER DIMINISH SOME. THE WIND TURNING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW THE
SEAS TO SUBSIDE, THEREFORE WE WILL HOLD THE SMALL CRAFT AFTERNOON
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-THURSDAY...NO SCA ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...NO SCA FCST BUT STAY TUNED TO MODEL DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING
EVOLVING LOW PRES AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MOVES EAST OF AREA.

MID AND LATE WEEK...SMALL SWATHS OF FF URBAN/SMALL STREAM PRODUCING
TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT WHERE. THAT OPPORTUNITY SHIFTS DAILY BUT MOST
FAVORED SEEMS TO BE E PA AND NNJ.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

CURRENTLY OUTLOOKING LOW ENHANCED RISK FOR MONDAY BASED ON
RESIDUALS FROM TODAY. LOW RISK OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY WAS A TOP 5 WARMEST JULY IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

PHL  81.8 WAS 3RD WARMEST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TOP 4 WARMEST WHICH
HAVE ALL OCCURRED SINCE 1994!

2011 82.4
1994 82.1
2012 81.8
2010 81.7

ILG 80.3 WAS ALSO 3RD WARMEST
1955 81.2
2011 80.8
2012 80.3
1894 80.1

ABE 6TH WARMEST AT 77.5
1955 79.0
1949 78.3
2011 AND 1995 78.0
1988 77.9
1994 77.6
2012 77.5

ACY WAS 5TH WARMEST AT 78.5
2011 81.0
2010 79.8
1983 78.7
1999 78.6
2012 78.5

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...HAYES
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-020>023-
027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070015-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-070015-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-070015-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY IN DELAWARE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-070015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
738 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONGSWAMP TWP           40.49N  75.67W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS ABOUT 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN IN
            LONGSWAMP TWP.

0543 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT DEPOSIT            39.60N  76.12W
08/05/2012  E65 MPH          CECIL              MD   PUBLIC

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRATERFORD              40.23N  75.45W
08/05/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN... RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANDOVER                 40.99N  74.74W
08/05/2012                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN ANDOVER.

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTERTOWN             39.22N  76.07W
08/05/2012                   KENT               MD   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN FROM CHESTERTOWN TO
            FAIRLEE.

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKTON                  39.60N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN AND WIRES BENT ACROSS THE
            NORTHEAST PORTION OF CECIL COUNTY.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  41.20N  74.48W
08/05/2012                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ONTO WIRES IN VERNON.

0646 PM     HAIL             FEASTERVILLE            40.14N  75.01W
08/05/2012  E0.50 INCH       BUCKS              PA   PUBLIC

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNELLEN                40.59N  74.46W
08/05/2012                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN DUNELLEN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200622 PHI1200623
PHI1200626 PHI1200625 PHI1200624 PHI1200629 PHI1200628 PHI1200627
PHI1200630 PHI1200632 PHI1200631

KLINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-060100-
CAROLINE MD-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT...QUEEN ANNE'S
AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WYE MILLS...SKIPTON AROUND 800
PM...STARR...JUMPTOWN AROUND 815 PM...OAKLAND...OAKLAND AROUND 830
PM...GOLDSBORO...SANDTOWN AROUND 845 PM AND HARTLY AROUND 900 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3899 7629 3898 7620 3900 7618 3903 7619
      3920 7573 3893 7557 3879 7623 3886 7627
      3886 7624 3884 7625 3881 7621 3893 7622
      3894 7624 3891 7624 3890 7626

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0504 PM     LIGHTNING        LONG POND               41.05N  75.46W
08/05/2012                   MONROE             PA   NEWSPAPER

            *** 10 INJ *** TEN PEOPLE INJURED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES
            AT POCONO RACEWAY IN LONG POND. TWO INJURIES WERE
            SEVERE... TWO INJURIES WERE MODERATE... AND SIX INJURIES
            WERE MINOR.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONGSWAMP TWP           40.49N  75.67W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS ABOUT 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN IN
            LONGSWAMP TWP.

0543 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT DEPOSIT            39.60N  76.12W
08/05/2012  E65 MPH          CECIL              MD   PUBLIC

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRATERFORD              40.23N  75.45W
08/05/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN... RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANDOVER                 40.99N  74.74W
08/05/2012                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN ANDOVER.

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTERTOWN             39.22N  76.07W
08/05/2012                   KENT               MD   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN FROM CHESTERTOWN TO
            FAIRLEE.

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKTON                  39.60N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN AND WIRES BENT ACROSS THE
            NORTHEAST PORTION OF CECIL COUNTY.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  41.20N  74.48W
08/05/2012                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ONTO WIRES IN VERNON.

0646 PM     HAIL             FEASTERVILLE            40.14N  75.01W
08/05/2012  E0.50 INCH       BUCKS              PA   PUBLIC

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNELLEN                40.59N  74.46W
08/05/2012                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN DUNELLEN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200633 PHI1200622
PHI1200623 PHI1200626 PHI1200625 PHI1200624 PHI1200629 PHI1200628
PHI1200627 PHI1200630 PHI1200632 PHI1200631

KLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BRICK TWP               40.07N  74.12W
08/05/2012  M47 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200634

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

DEZ002-NJZ016>019-021>024-027-060215-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
917 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...KENT AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 914 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CAMDEN TO 17 MILES WEST OF MILLVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MULLICA
HILL AROUND 915 PM...WOODBURY HEIGHTS...DEPTFORD AROUND 930 PM...
LINDENWOLD...LAUREL SPRINGS AROUND 945 PM...WEYMOUTH...ATSION AROUND
1000 PM...SHAMONG AND GOSHEN AROUND 1015 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3915 7468 3904 7476 3904 7495 3916 7490
      3921 7505 3920 7511 3917 7514 3929 7527
      3925 7539 3912 7540 3903 7536 3903 7555
      3934 7548 3926 7539 3929 7530 3942 7547
      3985 7535 3985 7526 3988 7519 3986 7452

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NJZ012-013-015-018>020-027-PAZ069-060245-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
948 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 945 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRENTON TO
AROUND CHERRY HILL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR MARLTON AND BURLINGTON AROUND 945 PM...LAWRENCEVILLE AND
PRINCETON JUNCTION AROUND 1000 PM...CLEARBROOK PARK AND CONCORDIA
AROUND 1015 PM...ENGLISHTOWN AND YORKETOWN AROUND 1030 PM...AND
LAKEHURST AND FREEWOOD ACRES AROUND 1045 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3984 7433 3985 7508 4003 7500 4005 7497
      4006 7498 4009 7495 4011 7497 4038 7485
      4038 7410

IOVINO