Special Marine Warning 62, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

960 
FZUS71 KPHI 160239
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1039 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ANZ450-451-470-160345-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0062.000000T0000Z-120716T0345Z/
1039 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...

WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...
FORKED RIVER...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...MANASQUAN INLET...OCEAN
GATE...SEA GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

AT 1035 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 50 KTS...FROM 13 NM NORTHWEST OF MANASQUAN INLET TO 13 NM WEST OF 
HARVEY CEDARS...OR FROM 11 NM NORTHWEST OF BELMAR TO 10 NM NORTHWEST 
OF BEACH HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT
  1050 PM EDT.
  COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
  NM AT 1050 PM EDT.
  WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM AT
  1120 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7368 3963 7370 3965 7423 3972 7418
      3982 7416 3981 7421 3982 7421 3984 7415
      3987 7417 3992 7411 3995 7420 3995 7412
      4001 7415 4004 7406 4005 7413 4007 7406
      4011 7406 4013 7410 4013 7403 4032 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 270DEG 30KT 4025 7421 3990 7420
          3966 7439

$$

HAYES

108 
FZUS71 KPHI 160310
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1110 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ANZ450-451-470-160345-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0062.000000T0000Z-120716T0345Z/
1110 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...

WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...
FORKED RIVER...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...MANASQUAN INLET...SEA
GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

AT 1105 PM EDT...FROM SEA GIRT REEF TO 5 NM SOUTHEAST OF BARNEGAT
LIGHT...OR FROM 3 NM EAST OF BELMAR TO 5 NM SOUTHEAST OF BARNEGAT
LIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM AT
  1120 PM EDT.
  COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT
  1120 PM EDT.
  COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
  NM AT 1120 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS 
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR 
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7368 3963 7370 3965 7423 3972 7418
      3982 7416 3981 7421 3982 7421 3984 7415
      3987 7417 3992 7411 3995 7420 3995 7412
      4001 7415 4004 7406 4005 7413 4007 7406
      4011 7406 4013 7410 4013 7403 4032 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 253DEG 35KT 4020 7391 4012 7368
          3992 7377 3974 7396

$$

HAYES

215 
FZUS71 KPHI 160333
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ANZ450-451-470-160341-
/O.CAN.KPHI.MA.W.0062.000000T0000Z-120716T0345Z/
1133 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...

WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...
FORKED RIVER...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...MANASQUAN INLET...SEA
GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING HAVE 
EXITED THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4027 7368 3963 7370 3965 7423 3972 7418
      3982 7416 3981 7421 3982 7421 3984 7415
      3987 7417 3992 7411 3995 7420 3995 7412
      4001 7415 4004 7406 4005 7413 4007 7406
      4011 7406 4013 7410 4013 7403 4032 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 253DEG 35KT 4025 7365 4017 7342
          3997 7351 3979 7371

$$

HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING FOR NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DELAWARE VALLEY, BUT
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING. A BY-PRODUCT TOO THAT THE
STRONGEST SHEAR IS LAGGING WHERE THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS
OCCURRING. THUS WE MAY HAVE ONE OR SO HOURS LEFT WHERE WE HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN NJ
CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO MEET THE TSRAS IN THE IMMEDIATE PHL METRO
AREA.

GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ENHANCE POPS ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AND
LOWER THEM FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOPEFULLY WE WERE NOT
PREMATURE IN PULLING THE THUNDER PLUG FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE WE
KEPT THE PREMISE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION AND LOWER POPS SOUTHEAST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SOME MINS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
AND OR OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION. WE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
NORTHWEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITING
TO OUR EAST MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION THAT EXITS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EARLY. MEANWHILE, A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUR CWA IS GENERALLY UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO SOME TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, IT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT ROBUST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE HELD INLAND DUE TO FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HEATING.

THE TROUGH OR WIND SHIFT COULD END UP BEING A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER
INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE SURFACE
FLOW IS NOT ALL THAT CONDUCIVE FOR CONVERGENCE, THEREFORE WE MAY
HAVE TO RELY ON ANY MORE DEFINED BOUNDARIES OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH EVEN
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF SOME CONVECTION IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP, THEN PERHAPS A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SINCE THE
COVERAGE LOOKS LOW BUT IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE, WE FAVORED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT THIS POINT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE TOOK AN EVEN MOS BLEND BUT ADDED A DEGREE OR
SO MAINLY FROM THE PHILADELPHIA METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HUMID DAY,
HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD LOWER THE DEW POINTS A LITTLE
BIT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE HEAT INDICES. WHILE IT WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID, THE FORECAST HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AREA. BASED ON
OUR LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST, IT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS WELL, THEREFORE INSTEAD OF STILL
CARRYING THE WATCH WE OPTED TO DROP IT AND FOCUS ON THE HOTTER
CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY /MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION/.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**HEAT RELATED HAZARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY**

500 MB: MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE SHIFTS WEST INTO THE ROCKIES
LATE THIS WEEK AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST USA.

TEMPS: ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN NEAR OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER. THIS INCLUDES MID SUMMER
CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS TUE AND WED AT LEAST 8F ABOVE NORMAL.

NPW: HEAT HAZARD WARNING FOR THE I95 URBAN CENTERS AND MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY EXPAND TO SURROUNDING ZONES...ESPECIALLY WED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVG FOR FOR THE HI TO BE NEAR 110F IN DELMARVA. PLS SEE
THE NPW FOR DETAILS ON I95.

MY PRIMARY CONCERN FOR VERIFICATION OF THE DETERMINISTIC HIGH HI
VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY IS LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
TUE NIGHT UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS.

SINCE 20C 850 TEMP MODELED OVERHEAD W SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S ALONG WITH A 15C 850 DEWPOINT... FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH
INFORMATION TO CONVERT TO A WARNING. A KALKSTEIN HEALTH HAZARD
PROGRAM ALSO SUPPORTED THE WARNING ISSUANCE FOR TUE AND WED.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANY EVENING CONVECTION QUICKLY DIES OFF. FAIR WX
WITH BLENDED 12Z/15 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE. WARMING ALOFT IN ASSN WITH
RIDGING ALOFT.

TUESDAY...HOT. 18C 850MB AT 12Z WARMS TO NEAR 20C AT 18Z. BLENDED
12Z/15 NCEP GUIDANCE. MLCAPE CREEPS UP TO 1000J VCNTY THE POCS
LATE IN THE DAY AND HAD I HAD THE NEW ECMWF KI/SWI FIELDS
SOONER...I WOULD HAVE ADDED A 30 POP FOR LATE AND NIGHT ACROSS NE
PA AND NNJ FOR A POTENTIALLY STG TSTM. HOWEVER...ITS NOT IN THERE
NOW AND WILL BE REVIEWED ON THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES. SO...IF MYN
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...ITS WHETHER THERE COULD BE A LATE
TUESDAY TSTM.

WEDNESDAY...VERY HOT AND HUMID. 20C 850MB TO START AT 12Z. APPROACHING
CF TRIGGERS SCT STG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS IN THE AFTN/NIGHT AS TT
INCREASE TO 48 AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS EXISTS JUST N OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CF PENETRATES MLCAPE OF 2200J AND PWAT ABOUT PLUS
2SD. BLENDED NCEP MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z EC.
12C EC IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED BECAUSE IT STARTS TSTMS SOONER. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAX TEMPS WED.

THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING CONVECTION S OF KPHL OTRW LESS HUMID AND
A BIT COOLER. BLENDED 12Z/15 GFS MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY AN EXCELLENT DAY FOR OUR DOOR ACTIVITIES! LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. BLENDED 12Z/15 GFS MEX AND HPC
GUIDANCE. THE MODELS SEEM TO BACKING OFF A BIT ON THE SWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW AM OPTIMISTIC THAT WE'RE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH A DRY FCST.

NEXT WEEKEND...NICE WX SHOULD CONTINUE. 12Z/15 HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LATEST 00Z TAFS CARRIED TSRA POTENTIAL THIS EVENING TIED THE
CLOSEST TO OUR ARW MESOSCALE MODEL. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WERE
BROUGHT DOWN TO MVFR AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE NWRN OF INTERSTATE 95 TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS AROUND LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING TOWARD
MORNING. WE DID CARRY THE MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN
SOME OF THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED
AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. THINK THAT KABE MAY BE
FOGGIER THAN CURRENT TAFS.

WE ARE FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH NO
CIGS AND JUST FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND, BUT COVERAGE RIGHT NOW
APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO CONFIDENTLY PLACE IN ANY TERMINALS.

OUTSIDE OF GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS SHOULD OVERALL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, WEST OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NOT
OUTLOOKING THE SEA BREEZE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH OF A WESTWARD
INTRUSION WITH THIS PACKAGE AND NOT REACH ANY TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS
VERY LOW. PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 0600
UTC...ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS (KRDG, KMIV).

TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT MAY THREATEN KABE AFTER 23Z. WSW WIND GUSTS 15 KTS IN
THE AFTN.

WEDNESDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RESULT IN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WSW WIND G 15 KTS IN THE AFTN...BUT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MUCH STRONGER GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. N-NE WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS. IF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MODELED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWS...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH IN THE MORNING.

FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING TONIGHT AND THEN
EXIT TO OUR EAST MAINLY DURING MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND IS KEEPING THE WINDS OVER THE WATER MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AND THE FLOW IS INCREASING SOME AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASE TO
ALLOW THE WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT MORE. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE SEAS
WILL BUILD AS WELL BUT APPEAR TO GET NO HIGHER THAN 4 FEET.
WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT HIGH THEREFORE WE THROTTLED BACK
ABOUT A FOOT. BASED ON THE FLOW, PERHAPS SOME 5 FOOTERS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE OUTER EDGE OF OUR COASTAL WATER ZONES.

FOR MONDAY, THE FLOW TENDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HOWEVER PLENTY OF HEATING ON LAND ALONG WITH AN INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TURN THE SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA HEADLINE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

ISOLATED SMW STORM GUSTS OF 34 KT OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTN/NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT GENERATED TSTMS.

OTHERWISE A MAINLY SW WIND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE THEN A
NE-E FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ATLC WATERS: ESE SWELL 2-3 FT AND 10 SECS MON NIGHT-WED MASKED AT TIMES
BY A 2-3 FT SLY SWELL OF 6 SECS. THEN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A MIXED
NE AND S SWELL OF 2 FT...4 TO 7 SECS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SO FAR THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AT A FAST ENOUGH CLIP THAT
THE HIGHEST REPORTED STORM TOTALS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND ONE INCH.

PW VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES IS RESULTING IN RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES IN THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
WERE TRYING TO TRAIN, HOWEVER ENOUGH FORWARD STORM MOTION APPEARS TO
BE PRESENT TO KEEP THE STORMS PROPAGATING. DESPITE THIS, LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT FROM THE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR ONE HOUR ARE ABOUT
AS HIGH AS THEY GET /NEAR 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR/. THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WOULD BE THE FASTER RESPONDERS IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF MORRIS COUNTY. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY FLOODING ISSUES WOULD BE LOCALIZED, THEREFORE NO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING AND ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY, PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES ONCE AGAIN MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION.
MODELED PW VALUES ARE 2SD ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS NOW TO 17 BUT ONLY FOR KRDG AND KABE...THROUGH
JULY 14TH.

RER MAXS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF NEAR RECORDS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY 7/17 WEDNESDAY 7/18
ABE 99-1999  98-1999
ACY 97-2006  99-2006
GED 98-1988  100-1953
ILG 100-1988 100-1953
MPO 91-1999  93-1953
PHL 102-1988 99-1953
RDG 101-1900 98-1999
TTN 100-1988 100-1953

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-162030-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-162030-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012-013-016-020>023-027-162030-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 100 TO AS MUCH AS 105 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROBABLY BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-162030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ014-024>026-162030-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

DEZ001-PAZ067-160215-
CHESTER PA-NEW CASTLE DE-
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESTER AND NEW CASTLE
COUNTIES...

AT 913 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWARK...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR TOUGHKENAMON...WEST GROVE AROUND
930 PM...KENNETT SQUARE...ASHLAND AROUND 945 PM AND TALLEYVILLE
AROUND 1000 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3983 7602 3985 7603 3990 7599 3991 7559
      3989 7558 3987 7560 3986 7560 3985 7558
      3984 7558 3984 7556 3977 7553 3974 7605
      3979 7606

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NJZ009-010-012-013-015-019-PAZ068-069-071-160215-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SOMERSET NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
921 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...
BURLINGTON...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...
MONTGOMERY...PHILADELPHIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12S MILES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HORSHAM...
WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AROUND 930 PM...VILLAGE SHIRES...CHURCHVILLE
AROUND 945 PM...TRENTON...MORRISVILLE AROUND 1000 PM...
MERCERVILLE-HAMILTON SQUARE AND WHITE HORSE AROUND 1015 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4017 7441 4014 7445 4002 7525 4031 7536
      4046 7445 4017 7436

HAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SANDY HOOK              40.44N  73.99W
07/15/2012  M39 MPH          MONMOUTH           NJ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200419

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NJZ012>014-160230-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
933 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH
COUNTIES...

AT 931 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LITTLE SILVER AND MONMOUTH
BEACH AROUND 945 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4020 7400 4017 7437 4045 7445 4048 7425
      4045 7420 4047 7418 4046 7416 4046 7412
      4043 7406 4042 7401 4048 7402 4048 7400
      4044 7397 4036 7396

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NJZ020-026-027-160300-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR OCEAN ACRES...WARREN GROVE
AROUND 1000 PM...BARNEGAT LIGHT AND BARNEGAT AROUND 1015 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3975 7409 3958 7421 3958 7426 3960 7428
      3958 7432 3957 7449 3983 7450 3986 7412
      3976 7418 3972 7415 3977 7415 3981 7410
      3986 7410 3986 7408

HAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1006 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HADDONFIELD             39.90N  75.04W
07/15/2012                   CAMDEN             NJ   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200420

HAYES