Special Marine Warning 52, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTVITY WELL TO THE WEST OVER OHIO SEEMS TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...ATTM WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTVTY WILL REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT DELMARVA BUT THIS
WOULD BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WANED CONSIDERABLY
AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXISTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE, WINDS
ALSO WERE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BRINGING IN
THE DRIER AIR, AND THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WHERE THEY ARE NOT
ALREADY SO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF 90 PLUS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND WITH IT AN
AREA OF CHANNELIZED VORT MAXES IS DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE ONLY AREAS
THAT APPEAR TO RECEIVE ANYTHING MEASURABLE WOULD ACROSS OUR
DELMARVA ZONES. THIS MAY BE A FACTOR OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AND THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO SHOW A
PASSING JET STREAK NEARING THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD HELP TO AIDE IN LARGER SCALE LIFT. FOR NOW ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE PLACED INTO THE GRIDS AND CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HUMIDITY STICKING
AROUND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE MID LEVELS, THE TROUGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOING ZONAL, WE START TO SEE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGING THEN FLATTENS OUT A BIT BY THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THE BEST DAY FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND FORCING LOOKS MARKEDLY
BETTER ON THOSE DAYS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO LOOK TO BE THE
MUGGIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE UPPER
90S ACROSS THE PHILLY METRO AREA AND CLOSER TO 100 ACROSS THE
DELMARVA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR TAF SITES AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COOL FRONT.

AS WE NEAR SUNSET THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FEET. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS BUT FOR THE MOST PART
OUR NORTHERN WATERS WOULD UNDER THE GUN THE MOST.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON IS HAVING AN INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TIDES
WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES APPROACHING THE MINOR TIDAL
LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT ON
MONDAY TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY THAT IS HAS A GREATER CHANCE AT
EXPERIENCING MINOR TIDAL ALONG THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

THE FULL MOON OCCURS ON TUESDAY AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS
GENERALLY WITHIN 0.3 FEET OF THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...HEAVENER/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-025>027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-030200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ023-024-030200-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-030200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             BLAIRSTOWN              40.98N  74.96W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200361

MEOLA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NJZ012>014-012130-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH
COUNTIES...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF NEW BRUNSWICK...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR EDISON...METUCHEN AROUND 445
PM...SOUTH AMBOY...PERTH AMBOY AROUND 500 PM...KEANSBURG...NORTH
MIDDLETOWN AROUND 515 PM...LEONARDO AND SANDY HOOK AROUND 530 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4029 7399 4049 7446 4053 7450 4059 7446
      4056 7422 4054 7424 4047 7425 4045 7420
      4047 7418 4046 7412 4043 7406 4043 7400
      4048 7402 4048 7400 4041 7396

FORECASTER: MEOLA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NJZ008-012230-
MORRIS NJ-
531 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MORRISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MORRIS PLAINS AND VICTORY GARDENS AROUND 545 PM...HANOVER TOWNSHIP
AND FLORHAM PARK AROUND 600 PM AND CHATHAM AROUND 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
ALSO...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 800 PM.

LAT...LON 4089 7428 4090 7433 4086 7432 4082 7432
      4080 7436 4074 7436 4068 7444 4071 7453
      4076 7456 4074 7461 4082 7483 4092 7476
      4091 7468 4094 7464 4096 7464 4092 7427

MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NJZ020-026-027-020100-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER BURLINGTON AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TOMS RIVER TO ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BARNEGAT
AND BARNEGAT LIGHT AROUND 830 PM...AND SHIP BOTTOM AND NORTH BEACH
HAVEN AROUND 845 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...PLEASE MOVE INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3977 7408 3969 7413 3950 7428 3965 7463
      3987 7431 3984 7414 3976 7418 3972 7415
      3974 7414 3977 7415 3978 7413 3980 7413
      3982 7410 3982 7408

MPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             BLAIRSTOWN              40.98N  74.96W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHIP BOTTOM             39.65N  74.18W
07/01/2012                   OCEAN              NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200361 PHI1200362

MEOLA/MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NJZ022>025-020215-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-
951 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY
COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILLVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CORBIN CITY...
SEAVILLE AROUND 1000 PM...MARMORA AND BEESLEYS POINT AROUND 1015 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...PLEASE MOVE INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3929 7454 3927 7456 3925 7460 3913 7470
      3923 7490 3929 7489 3933 7486 3934 7487
      3941 7484 3932 7450

MPD