Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EASTBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CAN STILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED NEAR
GEORGIA, WILL MAINTAIN WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE THE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME HAVING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WIND. THESE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTBOUND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING YIELDING
DECREASED INSTABILITY MONDAY, SO AT MOST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS MONDAY WELL INTO THE
80S PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS. DEW POINTS CAN BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY WERE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY, BEFORE A
SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT SPARKS SCATTERED PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

AS SHOWN BY GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS, TUESDAY CAN BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS WARMER THAN 90, AND WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S, HEAT INDICES CAN APPROACH 100 ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
BE 65 TO 70, BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT CAN BE IN THE LOWER 70S, AS
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE SPURS DEW POINT INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD ON
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT IT CLEARING VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA SAVE FOR MAYBE THE FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THE RESULTANT DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL RUNNING IN THE MID
TEENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR IN
SHOWERS...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL WITH STORMS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...BROKEN VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM MAINLY AFTER 08Z AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS...WITH A BETTER
THAN EVEN CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ001-OHZ040-041-049-050-059-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-160800-
GARRETT-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BELMONT-MONROE-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039-048-057-058-068-160800-
TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-NOBLE-
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDICES
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ048-057-152245-
COSHOCTON OH-MUSKINGUM OH-
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MUSKINGUM AND SOUTHERN
COSHOCTON COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COOPERDALE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL
POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COOPERDALE...         CONESVILLE...         PLAINFIELD...
  OTSEGO...             FERNCLIFF...          ADAMSVILLE...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL ELEVATE SMALL STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW LYING SPOTS...AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4026 8220 4027 8170 4001 8175 4004 8220
      4023 8219 4024 8220

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

PAZ013-014-020-021-152330-
ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-LAWRENCE PA-
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
ALLEGHENY...NORTHEASTERN BEAVER...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
FOMBELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL
POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOMBELL...            ELLWOOD CITY...       ZELIENOPLE...
  EVANS CITY...         MARS...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 96.
I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 26.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL ELEVATE SMALL STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW LYING SPOTS...AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4082 7978 4066 7991 4071 8013 4085 8033
      4096 8022

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

PAZ014-021-022-073-160000-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
WESTMORELAND...NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND WEST
CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTIES...

AT 733 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
SAXONBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THERE CAN ALSO BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUTLER...             SAXONBURG...          LERNERVILLE...
  SARVER...             NATRONA HEIGHTS...    FREEPORT...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL ELEVATE SMALL STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW LYING SPOTS...AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4076 7956 4057 7968 4073 8007 4087 7993

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ039>041-160015-
CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN TUSCARAWAS
AND WESTERN COLUMBIANA COUNTIES...

AT 738 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 2 MILES
EAST OF ALLIANCE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOMEWORTH...          MALVERN...            EAST ROCHESTER...
  GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK...                 AUGUSTA...
  DELLROY...            MILLPORT...           MECHANICSTOWN...
  LISBON...             CARROLLTON...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL ELEVATE SMALL STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW LYING SPOTS...AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4066 8125 4072 8124 4073 8123 4074 8109
      4090 8109 4091 8108 4091 8091 4076 8073
      4047 8116 4065 8138