Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EASTBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CAN STILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED NEAR
GEORGIA, WILL MAINTAIN WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE THE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME HAVING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WIND. THESE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTBOUND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING YIELDING
DECREASED INSTABILITY MONDAY, SO AT MOST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS MONDAY WELL INTO THE
80S PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS. DEW POINTS CAN BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY WERE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY, BEFORE A
SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT SPARKS SCATTERED PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

AS SHOWN BY GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS, TUESDAY CAN BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS WARMER THAN 90, AND WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S, HEAT INDICES CAN APPROACH 100 ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
BE 65 TO 70, BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT CAN BE IN THE LOWER 70S, AS
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE SPURS DEW POINT INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD ON
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT IT CLEARING VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA SAVE FOR MAYBE THE FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THE RESULTANT DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL RUNNING IN THE MID
TEENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR IN
SHOWERS...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL WITH STORMS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...BROKEN VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM MAINLY AFTER 08Z AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS...WITH A BETTER
THAN EVEN CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING
VFR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ001-OHZ040-041-049-050-059-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-160800-
GARRETT-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BELMONT-MONROE-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039-048-057-058-068-160800-
TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-NOBLE-
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDICES
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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