Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AND HUMID THIS HOLIDAY AFTERNOON, UNTIL A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS BLOWS THROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS HOLIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND,
LARGE HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES, UPWIND FROM CIRRUS-ANVIL-SHADED AREAS OVER NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA LEFTOVER FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS, PLUS NORTHERLY BREEZES OFF LAKE ERIE.

RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
INTO A BAND ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES WITHIN NEW PHILADELPHIA-
PITTSBURGH CORRIDORS, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH PAST THE I-70 AND
I-68 CORRIDORS BY EARLY EVENING.

ALL THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK
WITH, DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO BECOME SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO
FORECAST OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED. MADE BEST
JUDGMENT BASED ON OUR HUNCH OF WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAINTAINED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD COME SHORT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE GONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN SHRINKING SOUTH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS SHOWING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHRINKS SOUTH SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY BE
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

SO HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, EXCEPT THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND I-80 CORRIDOR.
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE MENTIONED HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TEMPO GROUPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW LOOKS TO BE FOR
KPIT/KBVI/KAGC/KHLG/KLBE THROUGH 22Z AND FOR KMGW THROUGH 00Z. ASIDE
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT AROUND 10
KTS TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS WHICH RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PRE-DAWN FOG TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR HAZE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-WVZ001-002-052115-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-HANCOCK-BROOKE-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ058-059-068-069-WVZ003-004-012-021>023-052115-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ013-014-020>022-073-052115-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WESTMORELAND-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ029-031-075-052115-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-FAYETTE-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-052115-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-INDIANA-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ076-WVZ041-052115-
GARRETT-FAYETTE RIDGES-TUCKER-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             MCKEESPORT              40.34N  79.84W
07/04/2012  E0.88 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200633

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
537 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             PENN HILLS              40.48N  79.83W
07/04/2012  E0.75 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200634

NWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
539 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

PAZ021-073>076-042230-
ALLEGHENY PA-FAYETTE PA-FAYETTE RIDGES PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES PA-
539 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY AND SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

AT 535 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
IRWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST NEWTON...        JEANNETTE...          IRWIN...
  GREENSBURG...         NEW STANTON...        PERRYOPOLIS...
  MOUNT PLEASANT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

I-70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 57.
TOLL 66 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8.
I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 63 AND 86.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3996 7973 4024 7988 4038 7966 4021 7935

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             NORTH VERSAILLES        40.38N  79.81W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200636

NWS

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