Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND, HAIL,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE GONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN SHRINKING SOUTH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS SHOWING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHRINKS SOUTH SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY BE
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

SO HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, EXCEPT THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND I-80 CORRIDOR.
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE MENTIONED HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH SHORT LIVED RESTRICTIONS AND
HAIL, PLUS GUSTY WIND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS WHICH RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PRE-DAWN FOG TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR HAZE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-WVZ001-002-052115-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-HANCOCK-BROOKE-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ058-059-068-069-WVZ003-004-012-021>023-052115-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ013-014-020>022-073-052115-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WESTMORELAND-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ029-031-075-052115-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-FAYETTE-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-052115-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-INDIANA-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ076-WVZ041-052115-
GARRETT-FAYETTE RIDGES-TUCKER-
506 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS CAN PROMOTE FLOODING.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             MCKEESPORT              40.30N  79.81W
07/04/2012  M0.75 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   PUBLIC

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200654

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             MCKEESPORT              40.33N  79.80W
07/04/2012  M1.75 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   PUBLIC

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200655

RG