Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Paducah, KY

736 
WWUS53 KPAH 021928
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ILC127-021938-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-120302T1945Z/
MASSAC IL-
128 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MASSAC COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3727 8862 3737 8866 3742 8839 3740 8836
      3742 8834 3745 8804 3718 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 258DEG 56KT 3732 8851

$$

ILC151-KYC055-139-021945-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-120302T1945Z/
POPE IL-LIVINGSTON KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
128 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN POPE
COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN CRITTENDEN AND NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 124 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIXON
SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF METROPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8862 3737 8866 3742 8839 3740 8836
      3742 8834 3745 8804 3718 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 258DEG 56KT 3732 8851
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

833 
WWUS53 KPAH 021941
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ILC151-021950-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-120302T1945Z/
POPE IL-
141 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN POPE COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3728 8842 3736 8846 3742 8839 3740 8836
      3742 8834 3745 8804 3718 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 258DEG 56KT 3736 8828

$$

KYC055-139-021945-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-120302T1945Z/
LIVINGSTON KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
141 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CRITTENDEN AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL
145 PM CST...

AT 138 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
JOY...OR 13 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 8842 3736 8846 3742 8839 3740 8836
      3742 8834 3745 8804 3718 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 258DEG 56KT 3736 8828
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1209 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO/THRU PAH FA ATTM. WE'LL BE SEEING THE MID 50S
SURFACE TDS PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP AS
WELL...AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
RAMPING UP. TIME/HEIGHTS SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE KICKS IN AT
290-295K. ANTICIPATE OUTBREAK OF AM CONVECTION WITH SLGT RISK
SEVERE (RECENT SWOMCD OUTLOOKS PROBABLE WATCH) AS OVERRUNNING
STORMS SPILL TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY (LARGE HAILERS
POSSIBLE). ALSO NOTED IS HELICITY ON THE BOUNDARY RUNNING 200-400
M2/S2 THRU THESE HOURS. IT APPEARS THE SWODY1 HAS EXPANDED THE MDT
RISK FOR THE COLD FRONT WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WARM FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AM HOURS...BUT THE MODERATE RISK IS STILL
MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE PM HOURS/COLD FRONT.

AND WITH REGARD TO THE COLD FRONT/PM HOURS/MDT RISK...THERE IS
STILL GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...AND THE GRADUAL STARVING
OF MOISTURE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNDERGOING AT ABOUT THE
TIME THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FRAY DURING THE MID TO LATE PM
HOURS. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE
FLARE-UP IN THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY TO OUR EAST...WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT UNDER THE MDT RISK EXISTS...DUE MAINLY TO THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT/DRY AIR WORKING DOWN THE COLUMN. THE SLOWER
GFS BLOWS IT UP FURTHER WEST (OVER OUR ERN 1/2 FA) BEFORE SHOVING IT
TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THIS POTENTIAL
HARD IN ALL PRODUCTS DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS.
KEY WORD BEING POTENTIAL...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINY OF STORM
INITIATION/COLD FRONTAL TIMING/PASSAGE AND CONCERN THAT MAY
ULTIMATELY BE MORESO TO OUR EAST.

STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 50+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD
MIX DOWN IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS PM...WITH NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
DATA REVEALING WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN A NARROW WINDOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS PM/EARLY EVENING.
HAVE POSTED WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS...ESP CONSIDERING CONTINUED
STORM DAMAGE CLEANUP FROM RECENT TORNADO OUTBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE SIGNAL FOR THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THIS MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE
TRANSITION OF THE UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...WITH THE BASE
OF THE WESTERLIES INITIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE IMPRESSED BAROCLINIC ZONE DUE TO THE GREATER SHEAR ALOFT ALONG
THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD
PROVIDE A SLOW...BUT CONSISTENT TRANSLATION OF POP/WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE MORE STABLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION...SO
KEPT A PRIMARY MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD VERSUS
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...PLACING THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EXIT OF THE LATTER WEEK
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...HAD CONSIDERED RAISING MAX
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES. FOR
NOW...COMPROMISED AND INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURE VALUES NEXT WEEK BY
1-2 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT
1209 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

LACK OF A CAP HAS ALLOWED NUMEROUS TSTMS TO ERUPT FARTHER WEST THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED TODAY. SOME OF THESE TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH TSTM WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN THE VICINITY
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH
THE PAH FORECAST AREA BY DARK...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND VARY SOME IN DIRECTION...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031845-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1244 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO DONIPHAN MISSOURI...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOR TODAY...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA
IS UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGH RISK IN OUR AREA
IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND CHRISNEY INDIANA
TO NEAR CADIZ KENTUCKY. THIS INCLUDES SPENCER COUNTY INDIANA...AND
IN KENTUCKY...THE COUNTIES OF DAVIESS...MCLEAN...MUHLENBERG...
HOPKINS...CHRISTIAN...AND TODD...AS WELL AS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF HENDERSON...WEBSTER...AND TRIGG COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...AND THIS INCLUDES
MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO CAUSE THIS HIGH RISK IS THE
FOLLOWING...A COLD FRONT WILL START ITS RAPID DRIVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A SPRING LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
...IN COMBINATION WITH THE POWERFUL WIND FIELDS ALOFT...IS WHY
THIS STORM SITUATION WILL BE SO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
THREATS IN THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF LONG TRACKS OF WIND DAMAGING
OR TORNADIC STORMS.

ALSO TO NOTE...WIND FIELDS OUT AHEAD OF AND BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTS CAPABLE OF TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 MPH WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY STORM. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
15 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TSTM WND GST     BERNIE                  36.67N 89.97W
03/02/2012  E70 MPH          STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT...SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF ROOF OF HOME. WIND
            GUSTS ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
114 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
03/02/2012  M50 MPH          MARSHALL           KY   MESONET

            GRADIENT WIND GUST MEASURED ON KY MESONET.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
118 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROUND KNOB              37.22N 88.73W
03/02/2012  M68 MPH          MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROUND KNOB              37.22N 88.73W
03/02/2012  M68.00 MPH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
121 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             NEW COLUMBIA            37.31N 88.78W
03/02/2012  M0.75 INCH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
122 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             STENDAL                 38.29N 87.13W
03/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       PIKE               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY