Severe Thunderstorm Warning 449, NWS Paducah, KY

458 
WWUS53 KPAH 171825
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

KYC059-171834-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0449.000000T0000Z-121217T1845Z/
DAVIESS KY-
1225 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

LAT...LON 3762 8692 3762 8695 3757 8702 3756 8703
      3765 8719 3783 8684 3780 8682 3775 8681
      3770 8685 3767 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 252DEG 26KT 3766 8695

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT THEY WILL
BE MOVING OUT QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED...BUT WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES 1 TO 2 PM. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

UPDATED THE PUBLIC GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
GUIDANCE TRENDS. SOLID LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NEAR KPOF TO NEAR KEHR.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM PUSH THE
BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PUSH IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
WARMING BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES CURRENT LOCATION...AND SOME COOLING
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A GIVEN LOCATION. USED
RUC DATA TO ACHIEVE THESE ADJUSTMENTS.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY STRATOCU WILL
ALLOW SOME MODEST WARMING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. FEEL THAT SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE/SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND REPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING LI'S ANYWHERE FROM -1 TO -5...AND
CAPE VALUES OF 300 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW MINIMAL QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. SPC HAS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WHERE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING
OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID EVENING AT THE LATEST.

WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRIEFLY BRING IN COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AND A QUICK RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING US DRY AND EXTREMELY MILD INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT.  ECMWF HINTS AT SOME PRECIP MAKING INTO OUR FAR
WEST COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

VIGOROUS H5 WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND RAPIDLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY THE STRENGTHENING
WAVE SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM NCNTRL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING
TO JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
TRACK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET...ALL OF
WHICH IS A COMPROMISE TO THE FASTER/SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE 00Z GFS VS. THE SLOWER FARTHER SOUTH 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS.

WENT INTO THE LOW END OF CATEGORICAL FOR POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY NEARLY ALL NIGHT GIVEN WELL ESTABLISHED
WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA. PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE IT
OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...RESULTANT
WIND FIELDS. BUT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF A FAVORABLE
AIR MASS AND RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

POPS SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
DEPARTS THURSDAY. ABANDONED DIURNAL ASPECT AS STRONG WNW WINDS
AND CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE RW-/SW- UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE QUICK SYSTEM DEPARTURE AND BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A MUNDANE QUASI ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS...SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING THE IFR OR LOW
MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE EVENING IN THE WEST AND
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST. LEFT A VCTS AT KOWB FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED...AS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. OF SOME CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND SKIES CLEAR. INSERTED MVFR FOG AT KCGI WHERE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IT...BUT KEPT VFR ELSEWHERE AFTER THE CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THAT SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1131 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HOPKINSVILLE TO MADISONVILLE TO OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY AND INTO SPENCER COUNTY INDIANA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH AND
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA.

DRS