Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Paducah, KY

385 
WWUS53 KPAH 260006
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

ILC081-260016-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-120926T0030Z/
JEFFERSON IL-
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3848 8880 3829 8883 3838 8915 3847 8915
      3848 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 277DEG 19KT 3843 8897

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT APPEARED TO
BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE A COLD
FRONT/SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY.

IN THE WARM SECTOR THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
ADEQUATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE AFOREMENTIONED
E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERATE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EACH PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A VERY SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN STALLING AND MEANDERING THE FRONT
OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE IS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH AND PHASE WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES
OUT OF TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER
BOTH PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH WITH PRECIP ENDING SAT AFTN WITH GFS AND
SAT NGT WITH ECMWF. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT GENERATES
WILL TRY TO DRY THE WEEKEND OUT A BIT IF POSSIBLE...IN CONTRAST TO
THE WORK WEEK. PER HPC THE ECENS WAS MORE POTENT WITH PU

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST
TWO THIRDS OF THE PERIOD. AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...TSRA CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT
KEVV WHERE THEY MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. VCTS POSSIBLE AT
KCGI AND KOWB AFT 12-14Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP OFF TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS AFT 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX....KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-262045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
340 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CENTRAL CITY KENTUCKY TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI...WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WILL BE THE MOST SUCCEPTIBLE TO MINOR
FLOODING AS A FEW OF THE LOCALES IN THAT AREA RECEIVED FROM ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE QUAD STATE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JP