Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

CONVECTION TAKING SHAPE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NEVER SHUNTED
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...BUT A CONSENSUS HAS NOT BEEN REACHED AT THIS
TIME. WILL HOLD ON ANY POP INCLUSION...AND MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AFTER A WARM HUMID DAY TODAY...IT WILL NOT BE A WARM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS MOS STILL SEEMS
A BIT TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEW
POINTS TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME IS
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

FOR THE FIRST THREE TO SIX HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NEAR THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME DISORGANIZATION WITH THE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...FOR
THE KEVV/KPAH TAFS...CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE
CONSISTENT FROM 00Z-03Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOW DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 12Z-15Z FRIDAY...BUT WITH VFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE.
AFTER 15Z...CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
340 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
732 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
08/16/2012  M59 MPH          MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            WIND MEASURED AT BARKLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT IN WEST
            PADUCAH, KENTUCKY. EARLIER GUST OF 54 MPH AT 721 PM CDT.
            HAIL LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

&&

K. SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
737 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
08/16/2012  E70 MPH          MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED WIND NEAR LOURDES HOSPITAL IN PADUCAH,
            KENTUCKY.

&&

K. SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
800 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

KYZ006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-170200-
GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...
EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON
800 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PURCHASE AND PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY...

A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WEST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 60
MPH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

SHOULD THE LINE MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE NEAR A
GREENVILLE...CROFTON...CADIZ...NEW CONCORD KENTUCKY LINE BY 9 PM CDT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...UP TO AN INCH IN AN
HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF FLOODING OF DITCHES...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL
AS CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. AVOID DRIVING IN OR
NEAR ROADS WITH WATER OVER THEM AND SEEK ALTERNATE ROUTES.

DANGEROUS LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...SO
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES WHEN STORMS ARE
OVERHEAD.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
815 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND RIVERS            37.01N 88.24W
08/16/2012  M55 MPH          LIVINGSTON         KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT NEAR KENTUCKY DAM. REPORT RELAYED TO NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

K. SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
826 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND GST     EDDYVILLE               37.08N 88.08W
08/16/2012  E60 MPH          LYON               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER HEARD BRANCHES BREAKING OFF TREES...WAS WITHOUT
            POWER AT HIS LOCATION.

&&

K. SMITH

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