Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

UPDATED MAINLY TO RAMP UP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WORK THEIR WAY FROM N/W
TO S/E DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALSO MENTIONED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE RUNNING UP CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES. WILL GO WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG N/W OF THE OHIO RIVER..AND THEN THIS EVENING
FARTHER S/E ACROSS MOST OF WRN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON DEVELOPING STORMS IN OUR
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC TEMPS WILL HEAT BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLY
GENERATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...STORMS COULD ERUPT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS
DAMAGING DOWN DRAFTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DIME TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

FRONT SHOULD SWEEP RAPIDLY THROUGH BY FRI NIGHT...HOPEFULLY TAKING
THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT ALSO TAKING AWAY RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) I
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL SET UP OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW... ALLOWING A FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE REGION.  MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS TO WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL SET UP AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE.  INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  WENT WITH DECENT CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.  STUCK WITH MAINLY DAYTIME CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

AFTER ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...A RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THE
WORK WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW
POINTS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

HRRR/4.0KM WRF MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE AROUND 20Z OVER SRN IL/SE
MO AND SW IN. IF THESE STORMS DO INDEED FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THEY ALSO WOULD ENCOUNTER VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN MOIST/SOLAR
HEATED AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS... STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AT TIMES. BEST ESTIMATE/CHCS FOR STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 22Z
THROUGH 02Z AT MOST TAF SITES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.-

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...MEFFERT
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-270830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
319 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOUT 105 DEGREES. SEE THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS HIGHEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK APPEARS GREATEST ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JP