Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

WEAK H5 WAVE THAT CROSSED THE REGION SUNDAY TURNED OUT TO BE ANOTHER
DUD. SOME PRECIPITATION WAS GENERATED BUT VERY LITTLE AND FAR BETWEEN.
NOT SURPRISING THOUGH...AS HISTORY HAS TAUGHT US THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO BREAK A DROUGHT PATTERN...OR AN EXTREMELY WET PATTERN FOR THAT MATTER.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION CHANCES...QPF...ETC WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEM TO BE DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUN. FEEL MOST ALL AREAS WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN...BUT VERY
DIFFICULT TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE. WITH POSSIBLY
A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...SADLY THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE TO AREA CROPS.

TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NOW BY 12Z TUESDAY THE
ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A SLIVER OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE DRIER WITH
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. SOME WETTER THAN OTHERS BUT ALL SEEM TO BE
TRENDING DRIER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE DRIEST WITH DEEP MIXING
LAYERS AND VERY DRY DEW POINTS COMPARED TO CLIMO AS PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION POINTED OUT. DAY SHIFT PULLED POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND AS WELL FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY NOW APPEARS TO BE OUR
BEST SHOT AT AIR MASS OR SUMMER TYPE CONVECTION. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED WITH STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILIITES AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE GUST FRONT AS THE STORMS PASS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1024 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1024 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS...THO AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY...THEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY BE NEEDED LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST STORM
CONDITIONS. PLEASE ALSO REMEMBER TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER AN INCH AN HOUR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
118 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW POPLAR BLUFF       36.84N 90.50W
06/11/2012  M51.00 MPH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
06/11/2012  M55 MPH          BUTLER             MO   ASOS

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
06/11/2012  E70.00 MPH       BUTLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IN THE CITY LIMITS OF POPLAR BLUFF. ALSO...SEVERAL TREES
            DOWN IN THE COUNTY

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             HENDRICKSON             36.90N 90.47W
06/11/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
06/11/2012  M64 MPH          BUTLER             MO   ASOS

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W SIKESTON            36.88N 89.71W
06/11/2012                   STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS CAUSING NUMEROUS TREES TO COME
            DOWN BETWEEN BLOOMFIELD AND SIKESTON ON HIGHWAY Y.

&&

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