Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

WEAK H5 WAVE THAT CROSSED THE REGION SUNDAY TURNED OUT TO BE ANOTHER
DUD. SOME PRECIPITATION WAS GENERATED BUT VERY LITTLE AND FAR BETWEEN.
NOT SURPRISING THOUGH...AS HISTORY HAS TAUGHT US THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO BREAK A DROUGHT PATTERN...OR AN EXTREMELY WET PATTERN FOR THAT MATTER.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION CHANCES...QPF...ETC WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM SEEM TO BE DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUN. FEEL MOST ALL AREAS WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN...BUT VERY
DIFFICULT TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE. WITH POSSIBLY
A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...SADLY THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE TO AREA CROPS.

TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NOW BY 12Z TUESDAY THE
ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A SLIVER OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE DRIER WITH
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. SOME WETTER THAN OTHERS BUT ALL SEEM TO BE
TRENDING DRIER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE DRIEST WITH DEEP MIXING
LAYERS AND VERY DRY DEW POINTS COMPARED TO CLIMO AS PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION POINTED OUT. DAY SHIFT PULLED POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND AS WELL FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY NOW APPEARS TO BE OUR
BEST SHOT AT AIR MASS OR SUMMER TYPE CONVECTION. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED WITH STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

IFR CIGS AT KCGI AND KPAH SHOULD BECOME VFR AFT 15Z. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 14-20Z...THEN VFR AGAIN. SHRA/TSRA AFT
18Z AT KCGI/KPAH...AFT 20Z AT KEVV/KOWB. SHRA/TSRA WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 05Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z...THEN
SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE WEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1024 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1024 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS...THO AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY...THEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY BE NEEDED LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST STORM
CONDITIONS. PLEASE ALSO REMEMBER TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER AN INCH AN HOUR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANDIN                 36.83N 90.82W
06/11/2012                   CARTER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE WEEPING WILLOW TREE BLOWN

&&

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