Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Paducah, KY

984 
WWUS53 KPAH 312119
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

INC147-KYC059-312130-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120531T2130Z/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-
419 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL DAVIESS
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 414 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANDVIEW...OR 7 MILES EAST OF ROCKPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 3799 8678 3799 8683 3794 8690 3792 8697
      3790 8698 3791 8694 3790 8691 3784 8690
      3784 8687 3783 8688 3778 8711 3799 8696
      3808 8678 3806 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 244DEG 28KT 3790 8687
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING THIS MID AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
GROWN VERY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SAME REGION...AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RUNNING UP AROUND
40 KTS. THE SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH SFC
BASED LI VALUES RUNNING IN THE -4 TO -8 RANGE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF STORMS. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

BY AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN SRN
IL/SWRN IND. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY STEADY OUT OF THE NW DURING THE
DAY FRI AS CLOUDINESS DIMINISHES. MEASURABLE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON SAT THE SAT NIGHT.

ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL
SEEM MIGHTY COOL...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROF WORKING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD GENERATE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO CONTINUES. THROUGH THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA WAS MOVING ENE AHEAD
OF AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FEW BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING TERMINALS MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS. A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DOMINATE FROM MID EVENING ON. IFR CIGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OVERNIGHT IN THE WRAP AROUND
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
314 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
314 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND DRIVES FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT...THROUGH THE QUAD STATE.

THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE NEAREST THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...WHERE ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. MULTI-CELLULAR LINE
SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT
ASSOCIATED THERE. SURFACE INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND CAPPED BY
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS THOUGH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
249 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             GIDEON                  36.45N 89.91W
05/31/2012  E0.88 INCH       NEW MADRID         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             GIDEON                  36.45N 89.91W
05/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       NEW MADRID         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             PORTAGEVILLE            36.43N 89.70W
05/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       NEW MADRID         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL