Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Paducah, KY

999 
WWUS53 KPAH 202239
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ILC055-081-202300-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-120520T2300Z/
JEFFERSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE REND LAKE AREA. MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8894 3822 8873 3811 8872 3804 8906
      3815 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 172DEG 2KT 3812 8901
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

DECENT CHC OF PRECIP WILL COME WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH MORE OVERALL MID LVL ENERGY AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
SHOWER/STORM CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE MAINLY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION...AND
LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY OVER SW IN AND WRN KY.

NOT LOOKING TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER...WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD
BE ACHIEVED IF A LINE OF STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND HOLD
TOGETHER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE CHCS APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IS STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS A CHC
THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD FORM ON THE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT
ACTIVITY OUT THERE AND MOVE EAST...SO THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF
A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT /OVER OUR AREA NOW/ WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST LONG WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. ALSO...WILL PROBABLY
DIE OFF WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN.

ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTN...
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT...THOUGH
BRIEFLY...TUESDAY. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW ON MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HAS BEEN A COOL BIAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...ESP IF WE DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL CONSISTENCY LENDS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. STARTED OFF NEAR GFS MOS DURING MID WEEK...
THEN SKEWED THE FORECAST ABOVE MOS VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THIS RESULTED IN A WARM UP FROM THE MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD EVEN APPROACH THE MID 90S. LOWS WILL
WARM FROM THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOS DEW POINTS ARE
OVERDONE IN THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS THROUGH HE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
DRY HUMIDITY AND EXISTING LOW FUEL MOISTURE MAY BE OF CONCERN TO
FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS DRY POCKET OVER MUCH OF FAR WRN
KY/SE IL. THIS SAME AREA OF DRY AIR PRODUCED NIL IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION YESTERDAY. WITH DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF OUR
FORECAST REGION...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AGAIN TODAY AND PUT THE
LEAST POPS IN THAT REGION OF DRY AIR. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SE MO/SW HALF OF IL AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR
NE AREAS OF SW IN AND EXTREME ERN PENNYRILE OF WRN KY. THIS MEANS
KCGI AND KOWB WILL STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ISOLATED STORMS.
CHCS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THO TO MENTION EXPLICITLY...SO WILL HINT WITH
VCTS THIS AFTN FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RP
AVIATION...GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR HIGH OZONE LEVELS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EVANSVILLE REGION IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CHANCES WILL BE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE DRY VEGETATION DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WHILE
SOME RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EVENT WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             4 NW MURPHYSBORO        37.81N 89.39W
05/20/2012  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GREGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     BLIZZARD         7 NW CHARLESTON         36.99N 89.43W
05/20/2012                   SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAS LASTED FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES. STILL ON-GOING.

&&

GREGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             7 NW CHARLESTON         36.99N 89.43W
05/20/2012  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAS LASTED FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES. STILL ON-GOING.

&&

GREGM