Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

DECENT CHC OF PRECIP WILL COME WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH MORE OVERALL MID LVL ENERGY AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
SHOWER/STORM CHCS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE MAINLY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION...AND
LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY OVER SW IN AND WRN KY.

NOT LOOKING TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER...WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD
BE ACHIEVED IF A LINE OF STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND HOLD
TOGETHER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE CHCS APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IS STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS A CHC
THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD FORM ON THE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT
ACTIVITY OUT THERE AND MOVE EAST...SO THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF
A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT /OVER OUR AREA NOW/ WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST LONG WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. ALSO...WILL PROBABLY
DIE OFF WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN.

ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTN...
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT...THOUGH
BRIEFLY...TUESDAY. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW ON MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HAS BEEN A COOL BIAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...ESP IF WE DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL CONSISTENCY LENDS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. STARTED OFF NEAR GFS MOS DURING MID WEEK...
THEN SKEWED THE FORECAST ABOVE MOS VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THIS RESULTED IN A WARM UP FROM THE MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD EVEN APPROACH THE MID 90S. LOWS WILL
WARM FROM THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOS DEW POINTS ARE
OVERDONE IN THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS THROUGH HE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
DRY HUMIDITY AND EXISTING LOW FUEL MOISTURE MAY BE OF CONCERN TO
FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS DRY POCKET OVER MUCH OF FAR WRN
KY/SE IL. THIS SAME AREA OF DRY AIR PRODUCED NIL IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION YESTERDAY. WITH DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF OUR
FORECAST REGION...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AGAIN TODAY AND PUT THE
LEAST POPS IN THAT REGION OF DRY AIR. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SE MO/SW HALF OF IL AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR
NE AREAS OF SW IN AND EXTREME ERN PENNYRILE OF WRN KY. THIS MEANS
KCGI AND KOWB WILL STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ISOLATED STORMS.
CHCS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THO TO MENTION EXPLICITLY...SO WILL HINT WITH
VCTS THIS AFTN FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RP
AVIATION...GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR HIGH OZONE LEVELS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EVANSVILLE REGION IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CHANCES WILL BE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE DRY VEGETATION DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WHILE
SOME RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EVENT WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.