Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...LAWTON...SHAWNEE...AND
STILLWATER AREAS. ALSO...MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO OTHER ELEMENTS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HOT AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MADE THE CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL
YIELD HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF AN ALTUS TO PONCA CITY LINE. THE 12Z KOUN SOUNDING DEPICTED PW
OF 1.58 INCHES WHICH IS 124 OF NORMAL AND HIGHER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT INDICES IN THE 103 TO 109 RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTERED RAIN CHANCES TO
RESEMBLE THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 30 PERCENT...EAST OF I-35 WHERE APPEARS DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND WEAKEST CAPPING WILL OCCUR. NEARLY ANYWHERE CAN GET
WET...BUT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE.

ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER DUE TO DCAPE VALUES 1200 TO 1800 J/KG. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL WHICH MAY IGNITE FIRES.

AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT ALTER THEM MUCH
DUE TO ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK
THEY MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS MAY BE EVEN HOTTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER DECREASES.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 104  74 100  74 /  20  30  20  20
HOBART OK        105  73  99  74 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX 105  76 101  76 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK          102  69  97  68 /  20  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK    104  71  96  73 /  30  20  20  20
DURANT OK        103  75  98  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ012-013-
     017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

17/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
OF STORMS EAST OF I-35.  THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND
PULSE IN NATURE.  WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP T0 65 MPH...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH MAY IGNITE FIRES...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN KANSAS
AND SURGE SOUTHWARD.  THIS LINE MAY BRING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BEFORE IT WEAKENS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PERSISTENT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS TO WATONGA OKLAHOMA TO PERRY
OKLAHOMA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.  ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH REGIONWIDE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM WEDNESDAY.

MBS/03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ039-071515-
STEPHENS OK-
945 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 945 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VELMA...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VELMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 9793 3467 9778 3458 9756 3430 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 23DEG 10KT 3455 9766

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ048-071815-
ATOKA OK-
1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATOKA COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1223 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARDVILLE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATOKA...STRINGTOWN...DAISY...LANE...DARWIN...CHOCKIE...REDDEN...
ATOKA RESERVOIR...MCGEE CREEK LAKE AND BENTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9578 3422 9578 3420 9618 3451 9612
      3451 9609 3460 9609 3468 9594 3468 9588
      3460 9588 3459 9575 3451 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 340DEG 15KT 3457 9598

MBS