Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A TRIBUTE TO TEAMWORK AND SERVICE AS...IN ANTICIPATION OF A MOVE
TO ANOTHER OFFICE...I COMPOSE MY LAST AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOR THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN...

/WE/ PREFER THE ECMWF BEYOND MONDAY...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CLOSED
LOW IS NEARLY CUTOFF AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE. /MAKE/ OF IT
WHAT YOU WILL...BUT WE LOWERED SEVERAL PERIODS OF 20-30 PERCENT
POPS TO 10-20 PERCENT...PROMPTED BY VERY WARM MID LEVELS AND
MINIMAL FORCING. /THE/ FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY OFFERS THE ONLY
CHANCE OF ORGANIZED RAIN...AND TIMING FAVORS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. /DIFFERENCE/ BETWEEN MODELS THROUGH MONDAY IS
LITTLE. /WHEN/ THE FRONT DOES ARRIVE...IT WILL DRAW AIR FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND WE LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.
/IT/ WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AT NIGHT...A TREND THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR MONTHS. /MATTERS/ PERTAINING TO THIS FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD AND LEAVE US WITH LITTLE MORE TO SAY. /MOST/ OF
ALL...ENJOY OUR SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER WHEN YOU CAN...AND CHECK
IN AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN WHEN SKIES THREATEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         67  98  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  98  71  98 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           58  95  55  96 /   0  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  90  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         71  88  70  90 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/22
BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO WICHITA FALLS LINE.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...OR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CAPPING WILL KEEP
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED AT MOST. STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
AND DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.

IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AS THE
MAIN HAZARD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW
STRONG STORMS.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM FRIDAY.

MBS/SPEG/CMS/PB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

TXZ087-040045-
KNOX TX-
721 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF O'BRIEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOX CITY...BENJAMIN...GILLILAND...RHINELAND AND VERA.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3352 10000 3352 9999 3362 9999 3378 9964
      3367 9951 3359 9947 3341 9979 3340 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 240DEG 49KT 3347 10006

WR