Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
IF ANY STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS SITE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME MVFR...IF NOT IFR...05-12Z...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST. BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z. BELIEVE MOST TSRA WILL NOT AFFECT KOKC UNTIL 10Z
AT THE EARLIEST.

MBS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER... BOTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NEW MEXICO... AND
ALSO AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE DRIFTING NORTH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW IN TIME AND SPACE OF SURFACE-BASED
ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. THE
NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINS STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH UNTIL THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS WEEK STILL
LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  78  51  75 /  40  60  40  20
HOBART OK         52  78  47  76 /  40  50  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  49  81 /  40  50  20  10
GAGE OK           47  74  41  71 /  50  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  76  51  70 /  40  60  50  30
DURANT OK         66  79  56  80 /  40  60  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES MUCH OF THE NWS NORMAN FORECAST
AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN BY 4 PM. FARTHER EAST...THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
HEATING OF AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL NEAR FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL STALL TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE. BECAUSE THE LOW IS STALLING...THE NUMBER OF STORMS
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY BE RELATIVELY
FEW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO ALONG A COLD FRONT
ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 35.51N 98.97W
04/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ026-022315-
LINCOLN OK-
546 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARWICK...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLSTON...CARNEY...TRYON AND WARWICK.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3555 9705 3569 9715 3588 9712 3590 9695
      3561 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 158DEG 29KT 3562 9697

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ004-010-015-016-030000-
HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-
634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER...WOODWARD...
CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SHARON TO BUTLER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODWARD...ARAPAHO...VICI...CUSTER CITY...BUTLER...SHARON...
CAMARGO...MUTUAL...PUTNAM AND STAFFORD.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3623 9916 3560 9882 3550 9915 3591 9932
      3622 9938 3667 9961 3680 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 167DEG 19KT 3632 9929 3562 9911

WR