Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES MUCH OF THE NWS NORMAN FORECAST
AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN BY 4 PM. FARTHER EAST...THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
HEATING OF AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL NEAR FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL STALL TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE. BECAUSE THE LOW IS STALLING...THE NUMBER OF STORMS
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY BE RELATIVELY
FEW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO ALONG A COLD FRONT
ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

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