Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Norman, OK

927 
WWUS54 KOUN 131846
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXC197-131854-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0495.000000T0000Z-121013T1915Z/
HARDEMAN TX-
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED/MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. 

LAT...LON 3451 9970 3451 9967 3454 9967 3481 9934
      3467 9909 3442 9947 3445 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 233DEG 36KT 3445 9954 

$$

OKC065-131915-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0495.000000T0000Z-121013T1915Z/
JACKSON OK-
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM
CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF FRIENDSHIP.  

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...BLAIR...OLUSTEE...ELDORADO...MARTHA...ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE
AND FRIENDSHIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9970 3451 9967 3454 9967 3481 9934
      3467 9909 3442 9947 3445 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 233DEG 36KT 3445 9954 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.AVIATION...
13/12Z TAFS...MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS NEAR TSRA. SCATTERED TSRA WILL OCCUR
ACROSS KGAG/KWWR/KPNC TERMINALS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. WILL FORECAST MOST OF IMPACTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS TERMINALS FROM KSPS-KOKC-
KPNC AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE PROGD ALONG-AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CLEARING
SKIES AND WESTERLY WIND BY 06Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED
TODAY...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY...STRONG
STORMS OVER PANHANDLES MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE 15Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. PROBLEM IS WHAT WILL BE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF OKLAHOMA AND
DRYLINE WELL WEST OF CWA. ALL MODELS HAVE QPF SIGNAL TOWARD AND
JUST AFTER 18Z SO CANNOT IGNORE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPING IN BROAD WAA REGIME AND MOIST-UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER... BEST OVERALL FORCING AND CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER 21Z NEAR/EAST OF DRYLINE WHEN MAIN UPPER
TROF PUSHES IN. ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WE
STILL ANTICIPATE A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE AND PROVIDE
MAIN CONCERN FOR BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WINDS. STORM CHANCES
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXITING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL OFF
DRAMATICALLY. NEXT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH REGION MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  53  81  53 /  80  60   0   0
HOBART OK         81  51  82  51 /  60  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  56  83  54 /  60  60   0   0
GAGE OK           80  47  81  43 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     81  53  79  48 /  80  60   0   0
DURANT OK         81  61  82  54 /  40  90   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MAIN RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAYNOKA TO SAYRE
AND HOLLIS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH
3 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

IF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST...THERE
WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A DRYLINE ADVANCES EAST. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.

BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES.  THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WITH THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
END.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY OCT 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
PRIMARILY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

OKZ033>036-TXZ083-084-131830-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-KIOWA OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARMON...
SOUTHEASTERN GREER...SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA...JACKSON...HARDEMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1254 PM CDT...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  STORM
INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.  A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF SWEARINGEN.
ANOTHER STORM WAS DEVELOPING NORTH OF QUANAH AND BLAIR.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...HOBART...QUANAH...BLAIR...OLUSTEE...ELDORADO...DUKE...
ROOSEVELT...MARTHA...ELMER...COOPERTON...ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE...
GOODLETT...TOM STEED RESERVOIR...HUMPHREYS...WARREN...FRIENDSHIP...
HESTER AND LAZARE.

LAT...LON 3422 10000 3441 10000 3509 9904 3494 9876
      3445 9936 3446 9937 3438 9944 3439 9947
      3435 9947 3393 9998 3424 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 240DEG 49KT 3416 9998