Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.AVIATION...
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
EXPANDS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA FROM 1-6Z WHILE LIMITING COVERAGE AND DURATION WITH
CONVECTION SOUTH. WILL MENTION PREVAILING TSRA AT OKC AND OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
(AFTER 7Z). MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW IS POSITIONED OVER NE TX PANHANDLE WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE OK/KS BORDER AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
OK. THESE BOUNDARIES AND TRIPLE POINT COULD BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
THEN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE STORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER SUPPORT THAT IS
LACKING FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS.

COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AOA NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY AFTER THURSDAY BUT
WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND NW FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  64  77 /  50  30  70  20
HOBART OK         69  90  63  80 /  40  30  50  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  93  65  85 /  30  20  40  20
GAGE OK           65  82  61  75 /  30  40  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  82  60  73 /  60  50  80  20
DURANT OK         72  88  70  83 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COVERED BY NWS NORMAN.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL LARGER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...CROPS AND CARS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...TREES AND UTILITY LINES.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION BY 6 PM CDT.
A DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...SHARPENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM CDT. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS LINE OR ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INITIAL STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS MAY GROW INTO A COMPLEX AFTER 7 PM CDT...POSING
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A WOODWARD TO
DURANT LINE. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE INSTABILITY AND A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STORM CHANCES DECREASE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

AUSTIN/MBS/MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
746 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 E KINGFISHER          35.86N 97.91W
05/29/2012  E2.75 INCH       KINGFISHER         OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            70-80 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             2 S KINGFISHER          35.83N 97.93W
05/29/2012  E3.00 INCH       KINGFISHER         OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             6 SE KINGFISHER         35.80N 97.87W
05/29/2012  E4.50 INCH       KINGFISHER         OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
758 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             BRIDGE CREEK            35.23N 97.72W
05/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE HAIL WAS REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
801 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             KADANE CORNER           33.85N 98.83W
05/29/2012  E4.00 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             1 SW NEWCASTLE          35.24N 97.61W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       MCCLAIN            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

NWS NORMAN