Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.AVIATION...
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
EXPANDS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA FROM 1-6Z WHILE LIMITING COVERAGE AND DURATION WITH
CONVECTION SOUTH. WILL MENTION PREVAILING TSRA AT OKC AND OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
(AFTER 7Z). MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW IS POSITIONED OVER NE TX PANHANDLE WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE OK/KS BORDER AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
OK. THESE BOUNDARIES AND TRIPLE POINT COULD BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
THEN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE STORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER SUPPORT THAT IS
LACKING FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS.

COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AOA NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY AFTER THURSDAY BUT
WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND NW FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  64  77 /  50  30  70  20
HOBART OK         69  90  63  80 /  40  30  50  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  93  65  85 /  30  20  40  20
GAGE OK           65  82  61  75 /  30  40  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  82  60  73 /  60  50  80  20
DURANT OK         72  88  70  83 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COVERED BY NWS NORMAN.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL LARGER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...CROPS AND CARS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...TREES AND UTILITY LINES.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION BY 6 PM CDT.
A DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...SHARPENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM CDT. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS LINE OR ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INITIAL STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS MAY GROW INTO A COMPLEX AFTER 7 PM CDT...POSING
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A WOODWARD TO
DURANT LINE. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE INSTABILITY AND A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STORM CHANCES DECREASE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

AUSTIN/MBS/MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ005-006-300000-
WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WOODS AND WEST CENTRAL
ALFALFA COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DACOMA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMBERT.

LAT...LON 3677 9837 3659 9844 3668 9859 3675 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 275DEG 7KT 3670 9852

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             2 ENE MENO              36.40N 98.14W
05/29/2012  E3.00 INCH       MAJOR              OK   STORM CHASER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             HILLSDALE               36.56N 97.99W
05/29/2012  E1.25 INCH       GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0649 PM     HAIL             4 W DRUMMOND            36.30N 98.11W
05/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       MAJOR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS NORMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ008-300030-
KAY OK-
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KAY COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 652 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLACKWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PONCA CITY...BLACKWELL...NEWKIRK...KILDARE AND PECKHAM.

LAT...LON 3698 9699 3676 9688 3670 9692 3668 9695
      3670 9704 3666 9707 3664 9727 3685 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 244DEG 16KT 3679 9719

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ013-019-020-026-300030-
LOGAN OK-LINCOLN OK-PAYNE OK-NOBLE OK-
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LOGAN...NORTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN...PAYNE AND NOBLE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 652 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PERRY TO PERKINS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STILLWATER...CUSHING...PERRY...PERKINS...LANGSTON...MORRISON...
GLENCOE...RIPLEY...AGRA...COYLE...RED ROCK...AVERY...LAKE MCMURTRY...
SOONER LAKE...LAKE CARL BLACKWELL...CERES AND INGALLS.

LAT...LON 3634 9703 3634 9693 3625 9693 3624 9682
      3617 9682 3616 9672 3589 9661 3588 9662
      3588 9725 3649 9743 3649 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 285DEG 32KT 3638 9733 3594 9708

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             4 S ANADARKO            35.01N 98.24W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NWS NORMAN