Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800
PM AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...BY
AROUND 01Z...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AREA STABILIZES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S...SO CONTINUING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC THROUGH 23Z.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT USED THE GFS GUIDANCE...AND A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THE REGION DRY. 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO 15-17C...AND WITH
MIXING TO AROUND 775 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 825 HPA NEAR THE
COAST...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 - WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS WITH MET/MAV AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 - EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO BE AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT - WARRANTING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS VALUES AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A SECOND 500 HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A
COMBINATION MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS AS A RESULT.
WITH CAPES FORECAST TO 1500-3000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...30-35 KT OF BULK SHEAR AND BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FROM
25-50 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECWMF
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 750 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 850 HPA NEAR THE COAST. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS...FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR...AND LOW TO MID 80S NEAR FAR EASTERN COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THEREAFTER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
POSSIBLE FOR NYC AND POINTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES TO 18 TO 20 DEGREES.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION AND THE RESULTING VSBY
REDUCTION IF THEY ARE HEAVY. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 19-23Z WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING WITHIN THE REGION AND THEREFORE LEFT AS VCTS IN TAFS. QUICK
AMENDMENTS WITH TEMPOS OF TSRA MAY BE NECESSARY IF COVERAGE
INCREASES OF CELLS ON RADAR. ALSO...WITHIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS ALSO MAKING WIND FORECASTS MORE UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VARIANCE OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES AT TIMES. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TO
THE WEST OF IT...MORE OF A SW-W FLOW IS LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
FREQUENCY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST OVER THE REGION -
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...WITH WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TOTAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THAN 1/10
INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY...BASIN
AVERAGE QPF LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH - HOWEVER
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS THE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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