Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT INTENSE
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CT...AND THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND.

OUTFLOW FROM THIS LINE HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED LOW LVL STABILITY
AND PROMPTED THE CANCELLATION OF THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE AND WHEN UPSTREAM CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO INCREASE SFC BASED AND
LOW LVL INSTABILITY.

FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN
CONVECTION...LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING...ALTHO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE BEACHES
OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND FINALLY BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH PW VALUES STILL
AROUND 1 INCH BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING...DECENT SFC
BASED CAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...AND GOOD LIFT WITH THE VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION...HAVE KEPT THE CHC FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY 06Z...CREATING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS. SO TAPERED OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING IN PLACE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR...NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO PASS.

850MB TEMPS COOL OFF GREATLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE GENERATION OF SHRA. SB CAPE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS ATTM SO INCLUDED THEM IN THE FCST. RISING
HEIGHTS ON WED PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO
CU DEVELOPMENT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FCST DRY. THE H5 LOW REACHES
CANADA BY THU...RESULTING IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. CAP EVEN STRONGER SO
DRY. TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW FRI. REMNANT PACIFIC SHORT WV PROGGED TO
SPARK A ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI NGT PERIOD.
12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING...SO POPS UNCHANGED FOR
NOW WITH THE ENTIRE PERIOD COVERED IN LOW CHANCES. CHANGED WEATHER
TYPE TO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS HOWEVER. THE NHC FCST
DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 00Z GFS REPRESENTATION OF DEBBY...SO THE HOTTER
12Z ECMWF SOLN HAS BEEN USED FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD TSTM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDS POPS THIS FAR OUT
SO THE FCST HAS BEEN KEPT DRY FOR NOW. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE
CAPPING AND THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TRIGGERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH AC ROSS
SOME OF THE AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE ANY STORMS DEVELOP SO WILL CARRY
VCTS IN THE TAFS...ALONG WITH A CB.

OTHER CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH...HOWEVER A BEST GUESS ON WHAT DIRECTIONS WILL BE...EXPECT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BECOMING SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS MIGHT
NOT BE AS FREQUENT AS IMPLIED IN TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE...WIDELY SCT AFT CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN NW FLOW.
.WED...WIDELY SCT AFT CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE AFT/EVE CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WITH POSSIBLE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS LATER TODAY...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE NGT THRU FRI. THE 00Z GFS POSITION
OF DEBBY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS...SO WAVEWATCH WAS
NOT USED FRI AND BEYOND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 0.5 TO 1.0
INCHES TOTAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.

IN TERMS OF FLOODING...MOSTLY MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS INVOLVES A SERIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A PARTICULAR AREA

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SEARS/12
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...SEARS/12
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-261000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
1027 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-261000-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1027 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-261000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1027 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND BAYVILLE                40.91N  73.56W
06/25/2012  M51 MPH          NASSAU             NY   MESONET

            MESONET

0755 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND EATONS NECK             40.95N  73.39W
06/25/2012  M45 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

            MESONET

0838 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND BUOY 44065              40.37N  73.70W
06/25/2012  M40 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            BUOY

0845 AM     LIGHTNING        TRAVIS                  40.59N  74.19W
06/25/2012                   RICHMOND           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHURCH CAUGHT FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE

0900 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND NEW LONDON              41.35N  72.10W
06/25/2012  M41 MPH          NEW LONDON         CT   MESONET

            MESONET

0915 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND NEW LONDON              41.35N  72.10W
06/25/2012  M45 MPH          NEW LONDON         CT   MESONET

            MESONET

0930 AM     LIGHTNING        NORTH STONINGTON        41.44N  71.89W
06/25/2012                   NEW LONDON         CT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE INJURIES AT GOLF COURSE DUE TO LIGHTNING
            STRIKE

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE MASSAPEAG         41.45N  72.07W
06/25/2012                   NEW LONDON         CT   PUBLIC

            ROUTE 12 AT STODDARDS WHARF RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0959 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND BUOY 44025              40.25N  73.17W
06/25/2012  M40 MPH          ANZ370             NY   BUOY

            BUOY

&&

PICCA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NYZ067-068-251900-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
203 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALLKILL TO GOSHEN
TO UNIONVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEW
PALTZ TO GOSHEN TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARWICK...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR GOSHEN BY 210 PM.
  NEAR WARWICK BY 220 PM.
  NEAR GARDNERTOWN BY 225 PM.
  NEAR NEW WINDSOR BY 235 PM.
  NEAR MONROE BY 240 PM.
  NEAR HARRIMAN BY 250 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4143 7447 4163 7425 4161 7424 4159 7414
      4162 7414 4161 7407 4159 7405 4159 7396
      4157 7395 4152 7399 4145 7399 4149 7393
      4151 7374 4132 7394 4132 7399 4124 7410
      4126 7450 4132 7461

GOODMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

CTZ005-009-NYZ069-070-251900-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
206 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER
AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OSSINING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR HAWTHORNE BY 215 PM.
  NEAR MOUNT KISCO BY 230 PM.
  NEAR BEDFORD BY 245 PM.
  NEAR RIDGEFIELD BY 300 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4143 7343 4118 7329 4108 7371 4110 7373
      4106 7379 4102 7393 4119 7403 4137 7359
      4137 7355 4138 7354

GOODMAN