Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM FOR SOUTHERN
CT...PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST NJ...AND LONG
ISLAND.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CT...TO
NORTHERN NEW YORK CITY...AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z. SBCAPE
VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40KTS. POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
LINE...WITH WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL...BEING THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

THE ROUND EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH MID
DAY...CREATING THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND WITH THE DECENT
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS PERSISTING...EXPECTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MORE SCT THAN WIDESPREAD LIKE THIS MORNING.
MESO MODELS HINT AT THIS SECOND...SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT...SO ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE A SHORT BREAK AROUND NOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WITH THE NEXT ROUND.

TEMPS COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTING TO PUSH THROUGH MID
DAY...LEADING TO EARLIER HIGHS. THAT BEING SAID...ANY SLOWING OF
THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH TEMPS. USED THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONT TIMING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE
BEACHES OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND FINALLY BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH PW VALUES STILL
AROUND 1 INCH BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING...DECENT SFC
BASED CAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...AND GOOD LIFT WITH THE VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION...HAVE KEPT THE CHC FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY 06Z...CREATING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS. SO TAPERED OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING IN PLACE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR...NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO PASS.

850MB TEMPS COOL OFF GREATLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE GENERATION OF SHRA. SB CAPE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS ATTM SO INCLUDED THEM IN THE FCST. RISING
HEIGHTS ON WED PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO
CU DEVELOPMENT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FCST DRY. THE H5 LOW REACHES
CANADA BY THU...RESULTING IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. CAP EVEN STRONGER SO
DRY. TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW FRI. REMNANT PACIFIC SHRTWV PROGGED TO
SPARK A ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI NGT PERIOD.
12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING...SO POPS UNCHANGED FOR
NOW WITH THE ENTIRE PERIOD COVERED IN LOW CHANCES. CHANGED WEATHER
TYPE TO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS HOWEVER. THE NHC FCST
DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 00Z GFS REPRESENTATION OF DEBBY...SO THE HOTTER
12Z ECMWF SOLN HAS BEEN USED FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD TSTM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDS POPS THIS FAR OUT
SO THE FCST HAS BEEN KEPT DRY FOR NOW. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE
CAPPING AND THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TRIGGERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CIGS COULD LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS 2SM OR LESS IN
SHRA/TSTMS TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE FIRST ROUND EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEST GUESS FOR THESE
STORMS WOULD BE ROUGHLY 15-17Z IN THE CITY...BUT THIS COULD BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. UPPER LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND OCCURRENCE RIGHT NOW.

TIMING OF WIND SHIFT INTO NW MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
GUSTS MIGHT NOT BE AS FREQUENT AS IMPLIED IN TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ONLY
OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CEILINGS COULD PREVAIL UNTIL 1030Z. GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ONLY
OCCASIONAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE...WIDELY SCT AFT CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN NW FLOW.
.WED...WIDELY SCT AFT CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
.THU...VFR.
.FRI...POSSIBLE AFT/EVE CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WITH POSSIBLE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS LATER TODAY...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE NGT THRU FRI. THE 00Z GFS POSITION
OF DEBBY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS...SO WAVEWATCH WAS
NOT USED FRI AND BEYOND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 0.5 TO 1.0
INCHES TOTAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.

IN TERMS OF FLOODING...MOSTLY MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS INVOLVES A SERIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A PARTICULAR AREA

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SEARS/12
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...SEARS/12
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

CTZ005>012-NJZ107-108-NYZ068-070-071-078-079-177-261100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 3/4 AND A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IS
ALSO EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002-004-006-103>106-NYZ067-069-072>074-176-261100-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 3/4 AND A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IS
ALSO EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ080-081-179-261100-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 3/4 AND A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IS
ALSO EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ075-178-261100-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 3/4 AND A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IS
ALSO EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-340-345-355-261100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ338-350-353-261100-
NEW YORK HARBOR-MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
658 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

CTZ005>011-251245-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN NEW
LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
738 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES...

AT 737 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKVILLE TO NEW
CANAAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERBURY TO NEW CANAAN...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4166 7211 4127 7243 4123 7276 4124 7290
      4128 7292 4114 7310 4116 7320 4104 7342
      4103 7365 4152 7327 4152 7317 4163 7302
      4165 7294 4157 7294 4155 7286 4164 7265
      4165 7251 4159 7244 4160 7234 4166 7230

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NJZ006-107-108-NYZ072-074-075-176-178-179-251245-
EASTERN UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN
QUEENS-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-WESTERN
UNION-
741 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HUDSON...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN)...QUEENS...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...SOUTHERN UNION
AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES...

AT 737 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOMERSET...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4054 7426 4056 7422 4060 7422 4059 7446
      4065 7441 4069 7416 4068 7414 4070 7412
      4078 7362 4058 7356 4059 7378 4054 7394
      4057 7394 4056 7401 4058 7402 4059 7401
      4061 7405 4052 7413 4049 7425

JMC