Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...AMPLE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE U.S. INCLUDES RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
MID-MS VALLEY REGION...WITH TROUGHING OFF THE PAC COAST AND OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. MOST OF MIDDLE TN IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN IN AN
ACTIVE N-NW FLOW PATTERN. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU TODAY. GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUMPED THIS UP TO NUMEROUS/LIKELY OVER THE
PLATEAU AND EAST OF 65 NEAR THE AL BORDER...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL SUNSET AND CONDITIONS STABILIZE. WILL TAPER
OFF POPS TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH MIDDLE TN BY LATE FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE ORGANIZED.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH NEAREST THE APPROACHING FRONT
(NORTH OF I-40). WITH PWATS OVER TWO INCHES PROGGED...HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE. WET MICROBURSTS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A
BIT TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY...WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE
INCHES POSSIBLE.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT-LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK
MOSTLY DRY SAT NIGHT - SUN NIGHT OTHER THAN A COUPLE ISOLATED CELLS
OVER THE PLATEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL POPS SHOULD RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNS.
WITH THE FLATTENING/WEAKENING RIDGE...AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS
GIVE MIDDLE TN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
ISOLATED/LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION MON-WED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  94  75  90 /  30  60  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    73  91  74  90 /  20  50  50  60
CROSSVILLE     70  86  71  84 /  40  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       73  93  75  89 /  30  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   73  93  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
WAVERLY        74  92  74  89 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
513 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL POSSIBLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

TNZ007-008-182115-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
337 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROBERTSON AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PORTLAND TO 8 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTH OF GALLATIN TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRINGFIELD BY 405 PM CDT.
  PORTLAND BY 410 PM CDT.
  CROSS PLAINS BY 415 PM CDT.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3665 8622 3663 8620 3645 8623 3641 8689
      3665 8703 3666 8659 3664 8656 3666 8651
      3666 8635

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             1 S COOKEVILLE          36.14N 85.51W
07/18/2012  M0.50 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   PUBLIC

&&

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

TNZ094-095-182215-
GILES-LAWRENCE-
450 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF LORETTO...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN GILES COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF LORETTO...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3500 8758 3533 8742 3516 8706 3499 8714

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
551 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

TNZ024-025-182315-
DICKSON-HUMPHREYS-
551 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MCEWEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAVERLY...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MCEWEN BY 600 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3623 8779 3621 8767 3620 8766 3619 8758
      3618 8757 3619 8756 3618 8751 3595 8758
      3595 8759 3595 8760 3594 8762 3600 8790

ROSE

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