Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH SFC OBS...
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE KOHX 00Z SUN UPPER AIR PROFILE AND INDICES...
BELIEVE THAT THERE MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
BUT...LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WILL KEEP THE MID STATE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS THE RESULT OF A CONTINUANCE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT LEAST OF THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE SFC PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM GENERALLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECASTED
VALUES AND WILL THUS NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME ALSO.
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE REASONING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ISOLATED TSRA WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
2...PROBABLY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES. SFC RIDGE WITH
WEAK GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WILL BRING GREATER PROBS FOR SCT TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF TERMINAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY PM...WILL
COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

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PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND AND GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HUNDREDS AS
MORE MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL GIVE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA A HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES CLIMBING AND
TOPPING OUT AROUND 2 INCHES ON MONDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO LOW
70S AT NIGHT AND FALL FROM THE UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER
80S ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES IN
ON MONDAY AND STICKS AROUND INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S, LOWS NEAR 70. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL AND
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE MID-STATE. INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
724 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4O ON SUNDAY. MAIN
CONCERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG THRESHOLDS. WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNZ058-060-094-095-072330-
GILES-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MAURY-
542 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES...LAWRENCE...LEWIS AND
MAURY COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN GILES
AND SOUTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MOUNT
PLEASANT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8756 3564 8739 3552 8705 3536 8716

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNZ026-027-072330-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-
559 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NASHVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CHEATHAM AND WESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3615 8714 3636 8706 3626 8674 3609 8680

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNZ025>027-080445-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-
1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON AND DICKSON
COUNTIES...

AT 1118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLE MEADE...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHEATHAM...NORTHEASTERN DICKSON AND WESTERN
DAVIDSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ASHLAND CITY...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8729 3640 8715 3626 8675 3607 8688

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNZ007-008-027-028-080530-
DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-WILSON-
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...ROBERTSON...SUMNER AND
WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENDERSONVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN WILSON...SOUTHERN
ROBERTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
GREEN HILL...LAKEWOOD...HENDERSONVILLE...GOODLETTSVILLE...
MILLERSVILLE AND RIDGETOP...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3630 8644 3615 8656 3629 8694 3637 8691
      3653 8679

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