Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Nashville, TN

891 
WWUS54 KOHX 082101
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

TNC043-081-085-082115-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-120708T2115Z/
DICKSON TN-HICKMAN TN-HUMPHREYS TN-
401 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
HUMPHREYS...NORTHERN HICKMAN AND SOUTHERN DICKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL HUMPHREYS...NORTHERN HICKMAN AND SOUTHERN DICKSON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8756 3612 8721 3574 8738 3574 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 228DEG 12KT 3586 8743

$$

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF'S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONCE AGAIN, POP'S ARE MAINLY IN THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS/CB
REMARKS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED BNA/CKV OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED WELL
WEST OF THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 19-20Z AROUND AREA AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST
HRRR RUNS...AND WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT BNA AND CKV. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

SHORT TERM (THRU TUE)..

MODELS SHOW H5 TROFING IN THE LWR-MID MS VLY TDAY BY VIRTUE OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY KICKING OFF SCT TSTMS IN
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST AL THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE
WEST WITH MORE TSTMS IN WEST MID TN TDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TDAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR
90S...WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 F RANGE...AND WL NOT ISSUE AN HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TNGT...A COLD FRONT WL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE TN-KY STATE LINE.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN MIDTN WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.

MON-TUE...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO MIDTN WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LKLY. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S
MOST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT WL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LKLY MON NGT. BULF OF THE QPF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON TUE...THO THERE WL BE LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 80S TUE.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
DRIER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WED-FRI. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVR THE REGION.
BEYOND THAT MODELS SHOW UPR TROF MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVR THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN. KEPT THE PROBABILITY IN THE CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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