Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z FOR CSV. SCT
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AFT 03Z...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
RULE. ISOL/SCT CONVECTION WILL RETURN AFT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, TOWARD OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES, AND SVR TSTM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THESE STORMS UP IN KENTUCKY. SOME WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED
THIS AFTERNOON AT SEVERAL KENTUCKY LOCATIONS, AND SIMILAR PROBLEMS
MAY OCCUR IN OUR NORTHEASTERN PLATEAU COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NO. 471 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 03Z, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
KENTUCKY STORMS. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
UP THIS AFTERNOON IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MID STATE, AND A FEW OF
THOSE COULD BECOME STRONG-TO-SEVERE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS AS WELL.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS YOU CAN EXPECT THE BRUTAL HEAT TO
CONTINUE UNABATED. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 08Z, SUN, IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE HOT
WEATHER PROBLEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HAVE ARRANGED OUR RAINFALL GRIDS FOR TOMORROW IN SIMILAR FASHION
TO TODAY'S, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN, AND SOME OF THE JUICIEST AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
ON SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE
FOR NEXT WEEK, AS OUR HOT BOX HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETROGRADES TO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE FACE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ACTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>009-022>030-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

TNZ010-011-031>034-063>066-077>080-061030-
CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
525 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES AROUND
100 IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

TNZ005>009-022>030-056>062-075-093>095-061030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-BENTON-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-PERRY-
HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-BEDFORD-WAYNE-
LAWRENCE-GILES-
525 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

04

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