Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING THIS WEIRD
GREEN...YELLOW...AND RED STUFF CALLED "PRECIPITATION"...WHICH HAS
BEEN A RATHER FOREIGN SUBSTANCE TO US HERE IN THE MID STATE OVER
THE PAST MONTH. SEVERAL AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR HAVE
RECEIVED VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY...WITH A FEW MARGINALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FURTHER WEST AND EAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SPREAD OUTWARD FROM CURRENT CONVECTION. ALSO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLATEAU AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE MID
90S. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INVOLVE PRECIP
CHANCES EACH DAY...AND WHAT IMPACTS RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
TEMPS. GFS/ECMWF PROG THE H5 RIDGE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RECORD
HEAT TO OUR CWA TO DISSIPATE...WITH A WEAK H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY ONWARD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE H5 RIDGE WILL THEN REDEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY
FLOW AS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH ALOFT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW HAVING RETURNED
TO THE MIDSTATE...MODELS PROG PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1.5 INCHES EACH DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS DAILY LOW PRECIP CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EACH DAY TO OUR NORTH
AS IT COULD ALSO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.

DESPITE RIDGE WEAKENING ALOFT...CONTINUED WARM THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 20C RANGE AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO LOW ON HIGHS EACH
DAY...AND HAVE GONE 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST DAYS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. HOWEVER...EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD KEEP
SOME LOCATIONS FROM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY. AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID STATE. THIS WOULD GIVE US MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IF IT PANS OUT...SO KEEP YOUR
FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  99  74  98 /  20  30  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    73  98  72  98 /  20  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     71  92  68  91 /  30  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       74  99  73  98 /  20  30  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   72  99  71  98 /  20  30  10  20
WAVERLY        73  98  72  98 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

TNZ057-059-060-021830-
HICKMAN-MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKMAN...MAURY AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES...

AT 1240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3604 8706 3599 8704 3602 8699 3588 8677
      3570 8727 3587 8740 3597 8726 3596 8721
      3598 8719 3601 8719 3605 8714

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
210 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

TNZ025-026-021945-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-
210 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM AND DICKSON COUNTIES...

AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE BLUFF...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DICKSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8702 3609 8704 3606 8726 3623 8735
      3631 8709

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
237 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

TNZ007-027-022000-
DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-
237 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON AND ROBERTSON
COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE STATE LINE SOUTH
TO NEAR NASHVILLE...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NASHVILLE BY 240 PM CDT.
  GREENBRIER BY 300 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3658 8675 3641 8669 3642 8675 3634 8672
      3630 8666 3618 8661 3615 8695 3625 8698
      3637 8691 3639 8692 3637 8699 3640 8703
      3645 8704 3665 8700 3665 8673

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

TNZ028-022030-
WILSON-
307 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILSON COUNTY...

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN LEBANON BY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. WINDS UP TO 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3632 8619 3633 8618 3625 8612 3623 8612
      3620 8609 3617 8609 3606 8635 3622 8652
      3632 8632 3631 8630 3635 8627 3631 8627
      3630 8626 3633 8625 3635 8621

AL