Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS TONIGHT...TEMPS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING THRU PRESS TIME
TO MAKE FINAL FINAL DECISIONS CURRENT TRENDS IN SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE MID STATE AND INFLUENCES OF APPROACHING MCS TO OUR
NW...AND WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT A LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING TO
ADDRESS THESE TIMING DECISIONS...BUT BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS
WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 373 ACROSS WRN MIDDLE TN WILL
EXPERIENCE DEFINITE SHWRS/TSTMS...WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING TO
LOCATIONS GENERALLY W OF I-24 THRU THE EVENING HRS...AS SRN
PORTIONS OF MCS MOVES INTO THE MID STATE. SHORT RANGE MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THIS REASONING AS WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...
AND LIFT POTENTIAL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE
LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND AREAS AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND HAVE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE POTENTIAL...
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A NWLY ORIENTATED FLOW ALOFT...TO
SUPPORT LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE AREA.
WILL GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 70...
MID 60S PLATEAU.

EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH S OF THE MID STATE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUE...AND THEN THE MID STATE WILL BE DRY UNDER SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES THRU THU NIGHT. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANCE PLATEAU...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...LOWER 80S PLATEAU. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...LOWER 60S TO AROUND 60 PLATEAU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  36.06N 88.10W
06/11/2012                   BENTON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWNED ON SANDY RIVER ROAD
            AND INDUSTRIAL ROAD.

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW DOVER             36.58N 87.97W
06/11/2012                   STEWART            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS DOWNED IN THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

0516 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 W HOHENWALD           35.55N 87.68W
06/11/2012  M59.00 MPH       LEWIS              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUST OF 59 MPH MEASURED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 412 WEST AND GARRISON ROAD ONE MILE EAST OF THE
            PERRY COUNTY LINE.

&&

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TNZ058-060-061-094-095-112345-
GILES-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MARSHALL-MAURY-
607 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...
MARSHALL AND MAURY COUNTIES...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MOUNT PLEASANT TO LORETTO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LAWRENCE...EASTERN LEWIS...GILES...SOUTHERN
MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN MAURY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
PULASKI AND LEWISBURG...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3500 8744 3558 8728 3546 8668 3544 8665
      3537 8662 3536 8660 3536 8664 3533 8660
      3531 8667 3525 8675 3526 8682 3504 8683
      3499 8684

BW

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