Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Nashville, TN

488 
WWUS54 KOHX 112115
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TNC005-083-085-161-112130-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-120611T2130Z/
STEWART TN-BENTON TN-HOUSTON TN-HUMPHREYS TN-
415 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
HUMPHREYS...WESTERN HOUSTON...BENTON AND STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 409 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOVER TO 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF DARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DOVER...WAVERLY...NEW JOHNSONVILLE...CAMDEN...TENNESSEE RIDGE AND 
BIRDSONG   MARINA.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3664 8784 3664 8765 3584 8782
      3581 8787 3585 8796 3582 8803 3585 8807
      3584 8821 3607 8822 3618 8818 3626 8809
      3636 8810 3637 8801 3645 8807 3668 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 287DEG 40KT 3660 8787 3570 8825

$$

BW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS TONIGHT...TEMPS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING THRU PRESS TIME
TO MAKE FINAL FINAL DECISIONS CURRENT TRENDS IN SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE MID STATE AND INFLUENCES OF APPROACHING MCS TO OUR
NW...AND WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT A LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING TO
ADDRESS THESE TIMING DECISIONS...BUT BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS
WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 373 ACROSS WRN MIDDLE TN WILL
EXPERIENCE DEFINITE SHWRS/TSTMS...WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING TO
LOCATIONS GENERALLY W OF I-24 THRU THE EVENING HRS...AS SRN
PORTIONS OF MCS MOVES INTO THE MID STATE. SHORT RANGE MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THIS REASONING AS WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...
AND LIFT POTENTIAL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE
LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND AREAS AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND HAVE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE POTENTIAL...
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A NWLY ORIENTATED FLOW ALOFT...TO
SUPPORT LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE AREA.
WILL GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 70...
MID 60S PLATEAU.

EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH S OF THE MID STATE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUE...AND THEN THE MID STATE WILL BE DRY UNDER SFC RIDGING
INFLUENCES THRU THU NIGHT. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANCE PLATEAU...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...LOWER 80S PLATEAU. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...LOWER 60S TO AROUND 60 PLATEAU.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  86  62  84 /  70  40  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    70  85  59  84 /  80  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  61  81 /  70  60  10  05
COLUMBIA       70  87  63  85 /  80  40  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   70  88  63  86 /  80  60  10  05
WAVERLY        70  86  60  84 /  80  40  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31