Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX PROBABILITIES...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

AT MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
PLATEAU...AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER WEST KY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS MID TN. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT SETUP
APPEARS PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DRIER OVER MID TN...BUT WITH
FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ON
WEDNESDAY IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
DOWN SLIGHTLY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN USUALLY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPC
HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...BUT A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WHICH IS PRETTY RARE IN RECENT HISTORY. THE COOL PERIOD WILL
BE BRIEF. RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUMP TEMPERATURES UP AGAIN WELL INTO
THE 80S SUNDAY AND SOME 90S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPS...THEN THE AREA GETS ON THE FRINGE OF NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW (MCS PATTERN).

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  90  63  87 /  20  20  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    62  88  61  84 /  20  20  10  50
CROSSVILLE     61  84  58  83 /  50  20  20  50
COLUMBIA       64  91  64  87 /  30  20  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   64  92  63  86 /  30  20  20  50
WAVERLY        63  90  62  84 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
909 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301415-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
909 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND A FEW
MAY BECOME SEVERE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...SMALL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID TENNESSEE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN USUALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS IF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVATION OF TRAINED SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ024-056-057-292330-
HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-PERRY-
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS AND PERRY
COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW JOHNSONVILLE...OR 17
MILES SOUTH OF WAVERLY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LAT...LON 3570 8744 3563 8750 3583 8789 3595 8783

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             36.56N 87.35W
05/29/2012                   MONTGOMERY         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE DOWNED BEHIND THE TARGET SHOPPING CENTER OFF
            OF DUNLOP LANE.

&&

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
606 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAVERLY                 36.09N 87.79W
05/29/2012                   HUMPHREYS          TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAIN TRACK GATE BLOWN DOWN IN WAVERLY. TREES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT WAVERLY.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NE CLARKSVILLE        36.63N 87.26W
05/29/2012                   MONTGOMERY         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ONE FOOT TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SOME CORN
            FIELDS THAT WERE FLATTENED.

&&

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ059-292345-
WILLIAMSON-
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 11 MILES WEST
OF FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3580 8662 3579 8666 3578 8666 3570 8675
      3577 8693 3578 8693 3577 8695 3578 8695
      3578 8696 3585 8717 3600 8702

31