Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
716 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE POPS GENERALLY.
EMPHASIZED THE WRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND THE ERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT LINE WILL
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR. THEN AFTN HEATING
WILL REFIRE CONVECTION IN MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR ST LOUIS IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD
THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IS
INCREASING OVER EAST TN. THE INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
TODAY. LOCAL WRF BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT INTO
STEWART COUNTY BY LATE MORNING AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL
BUILDS UP OVER EAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDSTATE...GOING QUASI-STATIONARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH HAPPENING ON WED
UNTIL DRY AIR GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH MOVES BACK NORTH DRIFTS BACK NORTH BY THU AM.

BY THU AM A VIGOROUS H5 WAVE DROPS INTO THE PLAINS...SPINNING UP A
MAJOR SFC LOW IN THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC LOW PUSHES NEWD INTO
THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS BY LATE THU. OF COURSE...THIS INCREASES
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THU THROUGH FRI AM. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECM DIVERGE A BIT. THE ECM MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER EAST ON THU
NGT AND FRI WITH COLD AIR COMING IN FASTER ON THE ECM COMPARED TO
THE GFS. HAVE STRUCK COMPROMISES ON POPS AND TEMPS TO BRIDGE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

THERE WAS SOME INDICATION OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON BOTH MODELS
BUT LOCATION AND TIMING WAS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND HAVE
THUS LEFT SUN AND MON DRY.

AS FAR AS WX THREATS GO...THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR THU/THU NGT HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR TSTMS. HPC HAS ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THEIR 5
DAY TOTALS FOR THIS WEEK(MON-FRI) WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
RESERVED FOR THE OH VALLEY AREA.

WELL I GUESS THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE'LL GET A COUPLE OF
DAYS (FRI-SAT) OF AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE THE HEAT COMES
BACK. MAY WILL WIND UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE...THE
SEVENTH MONTH IN A ROW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
428 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
428 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ022-291100-
BENTON-
527 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON COUNTY...

AT 523 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3620 8814 3622 8814 3624 8810 3628 8809
      3635 8798 3631 8795 3622 8795 3616 8791
      3613 8792 3609 8795 3598 8817 3604 8822
      3612 8822

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ005-022>024-056-291230-
BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-PERRY-STEWART-
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...
PERRY AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 621 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS BENTON...WESTERN
HUMPHREYS...HOUSTON AND SOUTHERN STEWART COUNTIES.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3612 8822 3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801
      3645 8806 3663 8764 3654 8762 3584 8777
      3577 8799 3581 8798 3581 8802 3585 8805
      3583 8809 3584 8821

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
742 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ005>007-023-291345-
HOUSTON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-
742 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON...MONTGOMERY...ROBERTSON
AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 739 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN HOUSTON...STEWART AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3667 8788 3666 8785 3664 8784 3664 8710
      3645 8713 3644 8715 3642 8715 3643 8718
      3640 8718 3641 8720 3634 8729 3637 8801
      3644 8806 3657 8804 3667 8808

04