Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Nashville, TN

269 
WWUS54 KOHX 011908
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
208 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

TNC049-133-137-011915-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-120801T1915Z/
OVERTON TN-PICKETT TN-FENTRESS TN-
208 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FENTRESS...SOUTH CENTRAL PICKETT AND EAST CENTRAL OVERTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF BYRDSTOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN FENTRESS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3640 8521 3658 8510 3651 8490 3628 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 299DEG 17KT 3644 8507

$$
31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE PERSISTS...ALONG WITH INFLUENCES
OF DIURNAL HEATING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME SCT CU FIELDS POSSIBLE
BNA/CKV THRU 02/02Z. DIURNAL DRIVEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT CU CSV THRU 02/02Z ALSO. HOWEVER...IF ANY SHWRS/TSTMS
DEVELOP...WILL BE ISO AT BEST AND NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIAL TO MENTION
AT TAF LOCATIONS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 02/08Z BNA/CKV AND 02/06Z
CSV. DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT/DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES NOT KICKING IN AFTER
02/18Z SHOULD RESULT IN SKC CONDITIONS THRU 02/18Z ALSO.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 616 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF'S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 13Z AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HEAT UP. ONLY 10
POP'S ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY, SO WON'T MENTION TS IN THE TAF'S
AS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW. LOOK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
DAVIDSON COUNTY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
RUTHERFORD COUNTY AND DISSIPATED. NASHVILLE AIRPORT PICKED UP JUST
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. INTERESTINGLY, IF THAT DOWNPOUR HAD COME A
FEW HOURS EARLIER, ON JULY 31ST, THE AIRPORT WOULD HAVE RECORDED
IT'S WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. HOWEVER, SINCE IT FELL ON AUGUST
FIRST, JULY'S RAIN AT THE AIRPORT WILL ENTER THE BOOKS AS THE 4TH
WETTEST (WHICH IS STILL PRETTY DOGGONE WET!) AS OF 330
AM...ANOTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF
WHITE HOUSE.

A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM
SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BNA AND WILL SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL TRAIN GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT,
PLAN TO BROAD BRUSH OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER AND A 10% POP AREA-WIDE.

BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS AND CLOUDS, HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, BY
TOMORROW, AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND 90+% SUNSHINE OCCURS, WILL
PROBABLY GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS VALUES,
AND GO WITH A MAX OF 97 OR 98 AT BNA.

STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SET OFF AN
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN PLOW EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS A BIT SUSPECT AND EVEN
THOUGH GFS MAKES IT APPEAR THAT A LIKELY POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED
AREA-WIDE, WILL JUST OPT FOR A LIKELY POP OVER WESTERN ZONES FOR
NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF NEXT SEVERAL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT BEFORE
POSSIBLY SPREADING HIGHER POPS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND
ENHANCE OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ONCE AGAIN, BEFORE PUSHING EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE MID STATE BY MONDAY.

WITH PW'S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND AT LEAST SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH, IT'S POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL. TWO TO FOUR INCHES WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS. THIS COULD FEASIBLY PRODUCE SOME PONDING AND
LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS AGAIN AND WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEE IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS IN PLAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, EXPECT EACH WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND WET MICROBURSTS.

LONG TERM...AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THINGS TO
DRY OUT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
507 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
806 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

TNZ005>008-022>028-056>062-075-093>095-012115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-BEDFORD-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...
NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...
HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...
MURFREESBORO...SHELBYVILLE...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
806 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...HOT WEATHER SAFETY WILL BE IMPORTANT TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO ENDURE ANOTHER BURST OF WARMING
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO PUSH TO BETWEEN 100 AND 103
DEGREES.

HOT WEATHER SAFETY WILL...ONCE AGAIN...BE VERY IMPORTANT. IF YOU
HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY...BE
SENSITIVE TO WHAT YOUR BODY IS TRYING TO TELL YOU. KNOW THE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT STROKE AND HEAT EXHAUSTION. DRINK PLENTY OF NON-
ALCOHOLIC LIQUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM WORK ACTIVITIES.
DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN A VEHICLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY RISE TO DEADLY LEVELS.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
926 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

TNZ005>008-022>028-056>062-075-093>095-012115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-BEDFORD-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...
NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...
HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...
MURFREESBORO...SHELBYVILLE...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
926 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...HOT WEATHER SAFETY WILL BE IMPORTANT TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO ENDURE ANOTHER BURST OF WARMING
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO PUSH TO BETWEEN 100 AND 103
DEGREES.

HOT WEATHER SAFETY WILL...ONCE AGAIN...BE VERY IMPORTANT. IF YOU
HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY...BE
SENSITIVE TO WHAT YOUR BODY IS TRYING TO TELL YOU. KNOW THE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT STROKE AND HEAT EXHAUSTION. DRINK PLENTY OF NON-
ALCOHOLIC LIQUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM WORK ACTIVITIES.
DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN A VEHICLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY RISE TO DEADLY LEVELS.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
132 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

TNZ010-011-033-034-011930-
CLAY-FENTRESS-OVERTON-PICKETT-
132 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...FENTRESS...OVERTON AND
PICKETT COUNTIES...

AT 132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF CELINA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WINDS 40
TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3662 8506 3631 8482 3615 8518 3661 8553

31