Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...AT 230 PM A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ORIENTED NE-
SW ACROSS THE MID STATE...FROM CELINA AND LAFAYETTE..SOUTHWEST
ACROSS METRO NASHVILLE...TO LINDEN IN PERRY COUNTY. A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SO FAR STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SUB SEVERE THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
PERHAPS A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. STILL...MANY
FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SO WE CANNOT LET OUR
GUARD DOWN JUST YET. ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS
OVER MONTGOMERY AND STEWART COUNTIES...BACK INTO WEST TN. THIS
BAND WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES
INTO THE MID STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORM
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WINDS TO BE THE DOMINANT MODE...WITH A FEW
SPINUP TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NW COUNTIES BY 4 PM...AND THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AT THAT TIME.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF NASHVILLE BY 5 PM...THEN
EAST OF THE PLATEAU BY 7 PM.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO MID TN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEW AIR MASS...LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM
TODAY/S RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED MOST
LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PUFFY CU IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM ROLLS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. RAPID
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY TO HE GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
COMING INTO THE MID STATE. SEVERE WX IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
CLUSTERS OR DISCREET CELLS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL FUSE INTO A
QLCS OVER THE MID STATE BY EVENING...THEN THE QLCS WILL RACE OFF
TO OUR EAST LATE EVENING.

COOLER AIR UNDER A MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL DROP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST AND THERE
WILL BE A RAPID WARMUP AS HEIGHTS REBOUND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS/STORMS MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  69  52  75 /  20   0  40  60
CLARKSVILLE    41  68  52  74 /  05   0  40  70
CROSSVILLE     43  64  51  70 /  70   0  30  60
COLUMBIA       44  71  55  76 /  30   0  50  60
LAWRENCEBURG   44  72  57  76 /  40   0  50  60
WAVERLY        41  70  54  75 /  10   0  40  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
755 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011400-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
755 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE PLATEAU. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO VERY POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BULK BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1035 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

TNZ005-006-291730-
MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
1035 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND STEWART
COUNTIES...

AT 1032 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MURRAY
TO PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DOVER BY 1055 AM CST.
  CLARKSVILLE BY 1115 AM CST.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3664 8784 3664 8715 3638 8761
      3638 8774 3635 8784 3637 8801 3644 8807
      3649 8806 3653 8804 3660 8805 3665 8807
      3668 8807

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

TNZ010-011-292115-
CLAY-PICKETT-
240 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY AND PICKETT COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CELINA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BYRDSTOWN BY 255 PM CST.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CLAY AND PICKETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
BYRDSTOWN...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3660 8484 3652 8524 3654 8527 3652 8530
      3653 8534 3650 8539 3649 8539 3649 8540
      3650 8540 3650 8543 3647 8546 3661 8552
      3663 8532 3663 8507

SHAMBURGER