Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING AND SO ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO KOMA AND KLNK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...WEST...AND
SOUTH...BUT NOT QUITE OVER THE AREA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US...WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN.
WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EVIDENT ACROSS SD INTO NORTHWEST NEB...AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM IN MT...AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK 30-50M 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS EXTENDED FROM BC THROUGH MT/WY...AND ALSO IN SOUTHWEST KS
INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.  700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE FAIRLY STEEP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 20C TEMP
DIFFERENCES AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL IL.  850MB MOISTURE OF 8C+ HAD
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE DAKOTAS/GREAT LAKES...WITH
AN INCONVENIENT DONUT HOLE OVER KOMA.  850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM...WITH 20-25C WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AT 19Z...WEAK
SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN IA...THOUGH IT
IS DIFFUSE AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT GRADIENTS ARE WEAK TO
NONEXISTANT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL
IA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KS...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES IN WESTERN NEB.  A LITTLE ACCAS IS EVIDENT IN EASTERN
NEB...BUT IT IS BASED WELL ABOVE 10KFT.  FOR THIS EVENING...THINK
ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST...AND WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS REMNANT CONVECTION FROM WESTERN NEB MOVES
EASTWARD...WITH SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.  ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN STORM MOTION OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND
HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR ANYTHING
DRIFTING OUT OF SD.  WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ON
WEDNESDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IOWA THAT ARE
LIKELY JUST GOING TO BRUSH THE EASTERNMOST CWA...WITH SMALL POPS IN
THERE THROUGH THE DAY.  WAVE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

TEMPS LOOK WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY IN THE AREA...BUT ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COOLER AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE AS IT REINFORCES THE EASTERN TROUGH...LEAVING A FEW DAYS
OF MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S OR SO
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF.  RETURN FLOW BEGINS AROUND FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA AS DEEP EASTERN US UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND WESTERN RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE PLAINS.  ECMWF HAS TRENDED WAAY DOWN ON ITS PROJECTION FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AND NOW
MISSES THE AREA ALTOGETHER AS RIDGING PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE MORE
NORTHWARD.  HAVE BACKED DOWN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS EVEN MODEL BLENDS ARE NOW CARVING AWAY
POPS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  ECMWF HINTS AT A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT MAY OR
MAY NOT SKIRT THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...AS AM SKEPTICAL OF ANY PROMISE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
557 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081300-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
557 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. A SPOTTY FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE OUT OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
REMAINING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN WESTERN
IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
730 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             CEDAR CREEK             41.05N 96.10W
08/07/2012  E0.75 INCH       CASS               NE   PUBLIC

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
753 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             1 W OFFUTT AFB          41.11N 95.94W
08/07/2012  M1.00 INCH       SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH.

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
755 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W OFFUTT AFB          41.11N 95.98W
08/07/2012                   SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS BREAKING. NO SIZE INDICATED.

&&

BKERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
809 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND GST     OFFUTT AFB              41.11N 95.92W
08/07/2012  E56 MPH          SARPY              NE   ASOS

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             1 E FREMONT             41.44N 96.47W
08/07/2012  M0.50 INCH       DODGE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
912 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

IAZ069-NEZ045-052-080245-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DOUGLAS NE-WASHINGTON NE-
912 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
EASTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF FORT CALHOUN...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CARTER LAKE AND CRESCENT.

LAT...LON 4118 9577 4130 9608 4148 9601 4144 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 288DEG 11KT 4137 9597

DEWALD