Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Omaha, NE

985 
WWUS53 KOAX 090013
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
713 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

IAC155-129-NEC055-090022-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-120809T0015Z/
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-MILLS IA-DOUGLAS NE-
713 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
MILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED TO 
JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO 
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF 
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY. WINDS DID GUST UP TO 65 MPH IN DOWNTOWN OMAHA 
AROUND 700 PM. 

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. 

LAT...LON 4090 9581 4096 9584 4098 9583 4099 9585
      4104 9586 4106 9588 4116 9585 4118 9584
      4119 9585 4119 9606 4129 9604 4129 9559
      4090 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 276DEG 21KT 4124 9594 4091 9570 

$$

DEWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

KOFK AND KOMA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH NORTH WINDS AS
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF
STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER WESTERN
IOWA AND COULD IMPACT KOMA EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE
TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

KERN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB
PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE WAS A 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL OF 50
METERS NOTED AT KABR. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WERE FAVORABLE...NEAR
9 DEGREES C IN OUR AREA.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. COOLER AIR
WAS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-
850 MB) FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. LATEST NAM12
SHOWED DECENT 850-700 MB THETA E ADVECTION SETTING UP IN THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SO...WILL SPREAD SOME SMALL POPS EASTWARD SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR NORTH. ALSO
LINGERED LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LATEST LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWED OUR AREA GENERALLY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TIMING OF
ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFICULT BY MID WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION DROPS TO AROUND OR BELOW NORMAL BY DAY 7.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MID
80S TO AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-090600-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
526 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL BE SPOTTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD PASS
ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT THEY MAY EXPERIENCE.

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
609 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

IAZ069-079-NEZ067-082345-
MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-CASS NE-
609 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATTAMIE AND EASTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BELLEVUE TO MURRAY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTH OF OMAHA TO 39 MILES EAST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENWOOD...MALVERN...PACIFIC JUNCTION...SILVER CITY AND HASTINGS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4090 9589 4106 9588 4108 9587 4112 9586
      4116 9588 4117 9587 4116 9585 4118 9584
      4119 9585 4119 9588 4120 9588 4122 9551
      4093 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 238DEG 26KT 4116 9596 4091 9594

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
615 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLATTSMOUTH             41.01N 95.89W
08/08/2012  M60 MPH          CASS               NE   AWOS

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
617 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE SPRINGFIELD        41.09N 96.12W
08/08/2012                   SARPY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR 132ND AND PLATTEVIEW ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
620 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W PACIFIC JUNCTION    41.02N 95.86W
08/08/2012  E60 MPH          MILLS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            KNOCKING DEAD TREES OVER NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER

&&

BKERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
630 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.16N 95.92W
08/08/2012  E2.00 INCH       SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GALVIN AND HARVEL

&&

BKERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
631 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.16N 95.92W
08/08/2012  E1.75 INCH       SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL GOLFBALL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER. ALSO WINDS
            ESTIMATED NEAR 70 MPH. LOCATION WAS NEAR GALVIN ROAD AND
            HIGHWAY 370.

&&

MILLER