Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MORNING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TAIL END OF NRN
PLAINS COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR NWRN CWA WHERE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MOIST
ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK BUT DID ADD MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST BEING THE RICH THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW'S FORECAST AROUND 1.50-1.90". THE SECOND REASON IS BECAUSE OF
THE SLOW NATURE OF ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. HPC HAS PUT THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

KERN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAIN BELT OF MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN CHUNK OF
ENERGY (WITH 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70 METERS) WAS
PUNCHING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THAT
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE ALOFT
STRETCHED FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THEN DROPS SOUTH. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
BE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WITH
FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (850 MB DEWPOINTS MOSTLY 10-15 C AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES). HAVE KEPT
POPS FROM 20-50 PERCENT. COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS SEEMS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO OVER 1.50 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED POPS UP TO
THE 20-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL STORMY
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY...THEN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS MOVES MORE DOWN INTO MISSOURI AND
KANSAS.

FARTHER OUT...THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN.  VERY FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FLOW WILL BUCKLE (VERY STRONG ZONAL FLOW/HIGH INDEX
PATTERN USUALLY CAN NOT LAST FOR LONG) BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
TROUGH FORMING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT LOW
LATITUDES...FLOW WILL BE RETROGRESSIVE. NET RESULT SHOULD BE FOR A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE INTO
MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ONSET OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL
TSTM ACTIVITY MOVES OVER SITES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
TO CONTINUE UNTIL WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TSTMS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
438 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093-151145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-THURSTON-CUMING-BURT-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-
DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
438 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE LIKELY OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING.

THESE STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN PLACE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-151145-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-PLATTE-
438 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR COLUMBUS
TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN PLACE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
552 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             HERMAN                  41.67N 96.22W
06/14/2012  E0.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
557 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             SEWARD                  40.91N 97.10W
06/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN SEWARD REPORTED BY A LANCASTER
            COUNTY SPOTTER WHO WAS IN SEWARD.

&&

MILLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
620 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
06/14/2012  M60 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   ASOS

            AT THE LINCOLN AIRPORT.

&&

MILLER