Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Omaha, NE

231 
WWUS53 KOAX 142101
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
401 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NEC023-037-155-142145-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-120614T2145Z/
SAUNDERS NE-BUTLER NE-COLFAX NE-
401 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM 
CDT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND 
SOUTHERN COLFAX COUNTIES...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEROLOGISTS INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
DAVID CITY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 25 MPH. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHUYLER...DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...OCTAVIA...LINWOOD...BRUNO...
ABIE...ROGERS AND GARRISON. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 415 AND 423.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4131 9731 4152 9709 4148 9691 4145 9691
      4145 9687 4144 9686 4131 9684 4115 9718
      4124 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 228DEG 23KT 4128 9715 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

PEARSON

364 
WWUS53 KOAX 142107
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
407 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NEC023-037-155-142145-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-120614T2145Z/
SAUNDERS NE-BUTLER NE-COLFAX NE-
407 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM 
CDT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND 
SOUTHERN COLFAX COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEROLOGISTS INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
DAVID CITY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 25 MPH. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHUYLER...DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...OCTAVIA...LINWOOD...BRUNO...
ABIE AND ROGERS. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 NEAR MILE MARKER 423.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9726 4152 9709 4148 9691 4145 9691
      4145 9687 4144 9686 4131 9684 4118 9713
      4124 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 228DEG 23KT 4130 9712 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

PEARSON

498 
WWUS53 KOAX 142124
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
424 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NEC023-037-155-142145-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-120614T2145Z/
SAUNDERS NE-BUTLER NE-COLFAX NE-
424 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM 
CDT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND 
SOUTHERN COLFAX COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVID CITY...OR 17 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. 

IN ADDITION...AT 415 PM PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN 
DAVID CITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHUYLER...DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...OCTAVIA...LINWOOD...BRUNO...
ABIE AND ROGERS. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 NEAR MILE MARKER 423.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9726 4152 9709 4148 9691 4145 9691
      4145 9687 4144 9686 4131 9684 4118 9713
      4124 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 230DEG 14KT 4133 9705 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

PEARSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MORNING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TAIL END OF NRN
PLAINS COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR NWRN CWA WHERE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MOIST
ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK BUT DID ADD MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST BEING THE RICH THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW'S FORECAST AROUND 1.50-1.90". THE SECOND REASON IS BECAUSE OF
THE SLOW NATURE OF ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. HPC HAS PUT THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

KERN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAIN BELT OF MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN CHUNK OF
ENERGY (WITH 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70 METERS) WAS
PUNCHING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THAT
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE ALOFT
STRETCHED FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THEN DROPS SOUTH. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
BE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WITH
FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (850 MB DEWPOINTS MOSTLY 10-15 C AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES). HAVE KEPT
POPS FROM 20-50 PERCENT. COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS SEEMS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO OVER 1.50 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED POPS UP TO
THE 20-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL STORMY
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY...THEN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS MOVES MORE DOWN INTO MISSOURI AND
KANSAS.

FARTHER OUT...THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN.  VERY FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FLOW WILL BUCKLE (VERY STRONG ZONAL FLOW/HIGH INDEX
PATTERN USUALLY CAN NOT LAST FOR LONG) BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
TROUGH FORMING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT LOW
LATITUDES...FLOW WILL BE RETROGRESSIVE. NET RESULT SHOULD BE FOR A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE INTO
MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ONSET OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL
TSTM ACTIVITY MOVES OVER SITES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
TO CONTINUE UNTIL WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TSTMS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-150645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1138 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ALONG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THEY
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES WILL ENHANCE THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALIVE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KERN