Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 19Z. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

THIS SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY THEN STALL OUT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE LIFTS IT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
AFTER 22Z AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 03Z...AND MAY DIMINISH TO SHOWERS OR
WEAK CONVECTION BY 06Z THEN END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. A WELL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND KOFK TO KGRI AT 17Z AND THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KOMA AND KLNK WILL HAVE
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN BY
SUNSET AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

AFTER THE STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/NIETFELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
413 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090-NEZ015-032>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>092-201115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-FREMONT-THURSTON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
413 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AND CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031-201115-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
413 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AND CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

IAZ080-091-NEZ093-201115-
MONTGOMERY-PAGE-RICHARDSON-
413 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
519 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NEZ042-043-192245-
COLFAX NE-PLATTE NE-
519 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLFAX AND PLATTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELLWOOD...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS IS
ALSO MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...CLARKSON...LEIGH...DUNCAN...PLATTE CENTER...CRESTON...
HUMPHREY...RICHLAND AND TARNOV.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 133.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9754 4174 9723 4172 9701 4143 9710
      4138 9719 4139 9721 4138 9730 4139 9736
      4138 9741 4140 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 189DEG 24KT 4141 9726

NIETFELD