Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS EXPECTED, AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED DUE TO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA REMAINING UNSEASONABLY MOIST. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. THE GREATEST IMPACT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THERE SHOULD BE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY BEING CLOSER TO
NORMAL. WEAK INSTABILITY APPEARS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER OF GREATER IMPACT WILL BE
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A CULMINATION OF
THESE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ATTRIBUTED TO STRONG OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN OREGON/WASHINGTON, IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING
INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THESE MODELS AGREE
ON PRODUCING BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.40 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONTANA IN THE MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IN THE LAKE KOOCANUSA BASIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AS DAM OPERATORS ARE TRYING TO
MANAGE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE AREA. IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA,
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WITH MULTIPLE
LARGE FIRES IN THE AREA AND LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REPORTING
HIGH FIRE DANGERS, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE
FRONT ARE TOP CONCERNS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
PROVIDING MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL AIRFIELDS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DECREASING BY SUNSET, THEN PRETTY MUCH ALL TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE RECENT RAINFALL WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS BRIEFLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
MONDAY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
     REGION.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING EASTERN LEMHI
     COUNTY.

&&

DICKERSON/LEACH/MSJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

IDZ006-009-012115-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOINTAINS-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LEMHI AND
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT/215 PM PDT/...

AT 244 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH FORK...OR 35 MILES
WEST OF SALMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHOUP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 11463 4525 11481 4553 11444 4551 11443
      4549 11437 4546 11434 4549 11426 4532 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 227DEG 30KT 4524 11459

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
327 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

IDZ009-010-MTZ006-012215-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
327 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAVALLI AND NORTHERN
LEMHI COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 323 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH FORK...OR 27 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SALMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GIBBONSVILLE...LOST
TRAIL PASS AND SULA.

LAT...LON 4583 11363 4583 11370 4574 11382 4577 11387
      4576 11390 4567 11392 4563 11388 4560 11379
      4553 11382 4538 11420 4551 11437 4599 11387
      4585 11361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 229DEG 34KT 4551 11418