Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
425 AM MDT Sun Jul 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to be present over the
Northern Rockies through the latter portion of this upcoming week.
Periodic storm systems embedded within the upper level flow will
impact the region as follows:

Much of western Montana...the environment today will be favorable
for strong storms to develop. A slight chance of damaging winds and
large hail are forecast through this evening.

Northwest Montana...high chances of precipitation during today and
again Tuesday, as well as near record inflow, will push Lake
Koocanusa closer to a pool-full situation. Once pool-full is
reached, outflow will be increased and impact those along the
Kootenai River below Libby Dam.

Southwest Montana...wind from the storm systems of today and
Tuesday will combine with low humidity to increase fire danger.
Any thunderstorm the develops across the East Beaverhead National
Forest may create new fire starts.

By the end of this coming week...temperatures are anticipated to
reach the warmest readings of this year, as high pressure
strengthens over the Northern Rockies. Afternoon temperatures
over 90 degrees are forecast at lower elevations for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Shortwave energy and an associated cold front have
already produced thunderstorms with hail and heavy rain in
northwest Montana this morning. The boundary has somewhat stalled
at current time but is forecast to move closer to KMSO by 07/1200z
and thunderstorms are again expected. Gusty winds, hail and heavy
rain should all be expected with storms through this morning from
KGPI to KMSO and this afternoon and near KBTM. Wind today will be
a combination of larger scale gradient forcing and wind associated
with thunderstorms. High resolution model guidance show shower
and thunderstorm chances through 02/0000z this evening, but
thereafter conditions are expected to improve.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions continue to look favorable for fire weather highlights
across southwest Montana during this afternoon. Lightning, gusty
and erratic thunderstorm winds, and low daytime humidity will all
be present through this evening. These fire weather highlights
include the East Beaverhead National Forest.

A very similar kind of adverse fire weather scenario appears to
develop again during Tuesday across southwest Montana.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

Zumpfe/Kitsmiller

Aviation...Kitsmiller

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

IDZ006-009-012115-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOINTAINS-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LEMHI AND
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT/215 PM PDT/...

AT 244 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH FORK...OR 35 MILES
WEST OF SALMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHOUP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 11463 4525 11481 4553 11444 4551 11443
      4549 11437 4546 11434 4549 11426 4532 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 227DEG 30KT 4524 11459