Areal Flood Advisory 16, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

TO SAY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACTIVE IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
A RISK FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING. STILL ANTICIPATING A SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE WE GET A BREAK IN
THE ACTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT COMES SURGING
BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THOSE TWO DAYS. BESIDE SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH
THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTING THOSE
DAYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG
UPPER JET /100-150 KTS/ SLAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIGHT NOW. BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
WORK EAST ACROSS MN INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF 40 KT LLJ
AND LEADING BLAST OF THETA-E ADVECTION. BACK FURTHER
WEST...STARTING TO SEE A NICE WARM FRONT TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS IN SW MN INTO NE SD...ALMOST RIGHT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SODAK HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND BACKING WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /NOW AROUND
50 KTS/ AND 0-1KM SHEAR /25-30 KTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/
INCREASING QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL
SIMILAR WITH INITIATING CONVECTION BY 22Z ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER
AROUND YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES...STORM TYPE WILL BE SUPER CELLULAR WITH A
GOOD RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
THROUGH ABOUT 0/1Z. WHAT IS MORE WORRISOME IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THESE STORMS INITIATE. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT HI-RES GUIDANCE YOU
LOOK AT...HRRR/NMM/ARW/MPX-WRF...THEY ALL CONGEAL THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO A LINE AND SEND IT RACING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BIG WORRY HERE IS THAT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO THIS
EVENING THAT THEN ROUGHLY FOLLOWS I-94 DOWN INTO THE TWIN CITES.
BY 6Z...THE RAP HAS MUCAPE OVER THE TWIN CITIES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...DCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND MOST WORRISOME OF ALL...AN
H85 LLJ INCREASING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KTS ALL POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO. THE BIG HOPE IS THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED AIR /TEMPS IN RAIN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S/ WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH ACROSS
ERN MN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CAN NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS
TO REACH THE SFC AND WE END UP WITH AN ELEVATED MCS. EITHER WAY
YOU SLICE IT...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT FOR THE MPX
AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS DRIVE A FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MONDAY NOW
LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY AND CUT POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CWA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT COMES SURGING BACK
NORTH...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ON YET ANOTHER 50 KT
LLJ. THIS THEN LEADS US INTO WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS HERE IS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BEING LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWING FRONTAL PLACEMENT MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL BE
VERY WARM AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS LIKELY IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAY NOT
SEE MUCH ACTIVITY AS STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...WITH H7 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND +14C...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING...WITH ALL SORTS OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF.
WORRY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THAT BESIDE ALL THE
INSTABILITY...AN IMPRESSIVE 70-90 KT SW MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
SPLAYED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TUES/WED...WHICH MEANS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS WILL BE HIGH...AND WITH PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES
/180 PERCENT OF NORMAL/...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN FINALLY GETTING
KICKED OUT OF HERE. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THU/FRI...WHICH IS
DRY...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT/FRI...JUST AS THE ECWMF SLIDES A 1020 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS UP SATURDAY WHEN
THE ECWMF/GFS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE MPX AREA
AS A SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS SODAK INTO IA. AS A RESULT...BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SAT NIGHT. LOOKING JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH
SIGNS OF A DECENT HEAT WAVE SHOWING UP FOR THE END OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING OVER NORTHEAST SODAK AND INTO WC MN AT THIS
TIME.  THIS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MCS AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS MAINLY AFTER 03Z-04Z
THROUGH 09Z/10Z TO THE FAR EAST.  CONTINUED WIND IN KMSP AND INTRODUCED
AT KRNH AND KSTC AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP
BEHIND SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF LOW END
MVFR CIG/BR OVER THE NORTHEAST AREA.  GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS EAST OVER THE AREA.

.KMSP...INITIAL THUNDER THREAT EXITING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WEST.  THIS SHOULD WORK INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MN MAINLY AFTER 03Z AS MCS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND A
DEFINITE THREAT/  HELD ONTO THAT FOR NOW...AND SHOULD THIS WORK EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z.  MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS BEHIND MCS
BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY 18Z.  WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF TSRA AFTER 06Z. WINDS SW 10KT
SHIFTING SE LATE.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25
KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/DE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181800-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM
TODAY FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES EXISTING. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT WILL EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF A WILLMAR TO ROCHESTER
LINE.

FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTING IF
MULTIPLE STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR SPOTTERS WILL SPREAD EAST
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             2 S STARBUCK            45.58N 95.53W
06/17/2012  M1.25 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

L. SCHALLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MAYNARD                 44.90N 95.47W
06/17/2012  E0.00 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL NO WIND ON HWY 23

0637 PM     HAIL             DAWSON                  44.93N 96.05W
06/17/2012  M0.25 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0646 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HOLLOWAY                45.25N 95.91W
06/17/2012                   SWIFT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0649 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NE DAWSON             44.96N 96.01W
06/17/2012                   LAC QUI PARLE      MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL HALFWAY TO THE GROUND.

0657 PM     HAIL             HANCOCK                 45.50N 95.79W
06/17/2012  M1.00 INCH       STEVENS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO HEAVY RAIN

0659 PM     HAIL             HANCOCK                 45.50N 95.79W
06/17/2012  M1.75 INCH       STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM     HAIL             MILAN                   45.11N 95.91W
06/17/2012  M1.00 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM     HAIL             HANCOCK                 45.50N 95.79W
06/17/2012  M1.25 INCH       STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 5 TO 7 MINUTES.

0724 PM     HAIL             2 S STARBUCK            45.58N 95.53W
06/17/2012  M1.25 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
744 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             8 N MONTEVIDEO          45.07N 95.72W
06/17/2012  M1.75 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AJZ

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