Areal Flood Advisory 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...UPPER PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW WSW FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US. THERE IS CURRENTLY A NICE UPPER JET STREAK WORKING ACROSS
SODAK INTO NRN MN...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN WY EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW THE JET INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MED
RANGE MODELS TO CUT OFF OVER SRN CAN AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...THE FLOW PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS RATHER DIFFUSE
ACROSS THE AREA. COOL FRONT THAT WORKED INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT HAS
STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM REDWOOD FALLS UP THROUGH RUSH
CITY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE BAGGY...SO THERE REALLY IS NO
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ONLY A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT...WITH DEWPS DOWN AROUND 40 IN THE AXN AREA...WITH AN
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SRN/SE MN. THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WORK WEEK...THE MOISTURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO JUST WAFFLE AROUND
THE CWA. THERE WILL BE TWO DOMINATE AND RATHER PERSISTENT SFC
FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY ACT TO REORIENT THE MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM ITS CURRENT
SW-NE ORIENTATION OVER TO A NW TO SE ORIENTATION BY FRIDAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...STRONGER FRONTS/INVERTED TROUGHS LOOK TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE SAT
NIGHT FRONT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN
ON MORE NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING
COOLER AND DRIER/LESS ACTIVE.

FOR PRECIP CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS PROBABLY THE HIGHEST AT THIS
POINT FOR THE FEATURE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TILL
THEN...WE KEEP THE MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IN THE AREA...WHICH MAKES IT HARD TO RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY POINT REALLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MESOANALYIS HAS SHOWN MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500
J/KG FROM SRN MN BACK INTO WRN IA/ERN NEB WITH LITTLE/NO CIN
INDICATED. FORTUNATELY...THE DIFFUSE AND EVEN DIFFLUENT NATURE OF
THE SFC WIND FIELD ACROSS IA HAS KEPT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
CU FIELD OVER ERN NEB LOOKING A BIT MORE PERTURBED IN REGION OF
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS AND QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THAT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE
NOSE OF WHAT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LLJ. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LLJ
GOES WILL DETERMINE OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RUC...IT WOULD FAVOR A MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH ACROSS IA. FURTHER NORTH...A NICE FIELD OF
ACCUS IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS NODAK AT THE MOMENT. THE RUC
ALONG WITH MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THE WY WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN TONIGHT...WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY TAKE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT NRN AND SRN/SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT...WITH IT BEING VERY
POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE HAPPENS IN BETWEEN.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUDSON HIGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY GAIN
STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HOPE THAT IT POSSIBLY GIVES
A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THURSDAY...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC. SREF/NAM/GFS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SFC LOW MOVING INTO SW MN BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. IF
THIS OCCURS...THUNDER CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS WRN MN...SO
HAD TO DRAG CHANCE POPS BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THEN. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK FOR SW MN IS WARRANTED...OTHERWISE WE WOULD JUST SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR FRIDAY...IT
IS LOOKING THE HUDSON HIGH WILL HELP CUT OFF PRECIP DURING THE
MORNING...BUT INCREASING WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW MPX CWA.

THIS WEEKEND...THE MODELS POINT TO A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVES
TO WORK THROUGH. FOR SAT NIGHT...THE ECWMF IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS EXISTS WITH THE FEATURE FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR THEN. AT THIS
POINT...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
LOW...AS BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO WORK ACROSS MO.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...WE ARE LIKELY HOLDING ON TO POPS INTO MONDAY
A BIT TOO LONG WHEN LOOKING AT THE 02.12 ECWMF/GFS AS SFC RIDGING
LOOKS TO POSSIBLY GIVE US A FEW DAYS OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

STRATUS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED LT THIS MRNG...BUT CU IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP FROM PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAIN DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT WHICH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING THRU AREA. THIS
FEATURE LIES FROM S OF CBG TO JUST N OF HCD THEN INTO SW MN. WINDS
SPEEDS ARE VERY LIGHT SO IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PROG TIMING OF
WIND SHIFT. STILL FEEL THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTN TSTMS WILL BE
ACROSS S MN.  SPC MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
IA BORDER...WITH FURTHER INCREASES AS ATMOS CONTINUES TO WARM.
MINIMUAL CIN ACROSS THAT AREA AS WELL. ACTIVITY SHUD THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTH LT AFTN AND EVENING.  SEE TAFS ON TIMING OF WINDS AND
TSTMS.

KMSP...SCT030 CU DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA MAY GO BKN ARND 040 DURING
THE AFTN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE VERY LIGHT THIS AFTN.  WEAK SW
WINDS SHUD BECOME LIGHT NW FOR A TIME MID AFTN AS WEAK SURFACE DROP
THRU AND THEN END UP SE EARLY EVENING.  SPEEDS GNRLY 5 KTS OF LESS.
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ARND 21-22Z IN S MN AND EXPAND N DURING LT
AFTN EVE...AFFECTING MSP AFT 01Z. WITH PCPN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNITE INTO THURS MRNG.

OTLK...
THURSDAY MVFR CIGS ERLY...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR A TIME.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MNZ064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ024-026-028-032215-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-PIERCE-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
513 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND PART OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
IOWA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL STRONG. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATER
THURSDAY.

MNZ041>045-047>063-WIZ014>016-023-025-027-032215-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-DUNN-
513 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL STRONG. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE WASECA            44.09N 93.49W
05/02/2012  M57 MPH          WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             WASECA                  44.08N 93.50W
05/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             8 SW NEW ULM            44.23N 94.57W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       BROWN              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
742 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARSAW                  44.25N 93.39W
05/02/2012                   RICE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCALIZED FLOODING

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 W ZUMBROTA            44.30N 92.73W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON