Special Marine Warning 105, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN
SMALL AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT UNLIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING EAST 5 TO
10 MPH FRIDAY. WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY 10 TO 15 MPH AND DECREASING
TO AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SPECTRAL MODEL GUIDANCE CALCULATES AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE SWINGING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER WESTLANT BRINGING A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS
CALCULATE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FA THAN
THE SPECTRAL MODELS...THE SPECTRALS SHOW A SHORT LIVED BUT DEEP
PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD OFF MOBILE BAY AROUND
15/18Z. IT IS LIKELY THE MODELS PICKED UP THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFFSHORE YESTERDAY
AND THEN BACKED UP BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BEACH...BUT
NEVERTHELESS WE HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES
WITH MOS TEMPERATURES COOL AND DRY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES. GUIDANCE
CALCULATES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING UNDER A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WAVENUMBER 5 PROGNOSIS WHICH
TENDS TO RETROGRADE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT AROUND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IN THE WAVENUMBER 5 PROG IT
HINTS AT A REX BLOCK...HELPING TO KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IN PLACE...THOUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...THE EDDY KINETIC
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WIND FIELD UNDER THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO DOMINATE AND PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE PHASE WITH THE DETAILS...SO WE LEFT
THE EXTENDED AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z-00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
SAT. HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 20Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z FRI FOR
ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR AFT THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INLAND AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS...MOSTLY FROM
1.5K FT TO 2.5 K FT IN AND AROUND AFT AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFT AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
GENERALLY FROM 15Z THROUGH 00Z SAT. VARIABLE WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 25
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...REFORMING AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HELP BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY...AND 20
TO 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FEET
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT ON FRI...AND 4 TO 6 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 5 TO 7
FEET FROM 20 TO 60 NM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SHIFTS SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO ALLOW REGIONAL DRYING OUT
TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT WITHOUT HUMIDITY MEETING FIRE
HEADLINE CRITERIA. DISPERSION LOW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MODERATE ELSEWHERE. DISPERSION AFTER FRIDAY MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  88  69  86 /  20  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   74  89  72  87 /  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      73  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  20
EVERGREEN   68  90  64  88 /  20  40  20  10
WAYNESBORO  65  90  64  89 /  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      67  90  64  89 /  20  30  20  05
CRESTVIEW   67  91  65  89 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&