Special Marine Warning 103, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN
SMALL AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT UNLIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING EAST 5 TO
10 MPH FRIDAY. WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY 10 TO 15 MPH AND DECREASING
TO AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SPECTRAL MODEL GUIDANCE CALCULATES AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTLOBE SWINGING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER WESTLANT BRINGING A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS
CALCULATE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FA THAN
THE SPECTRAL MODELS...THE SPECTRALS SHOW A SHORT LIVED BUT DEEP
PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD OFF MOBILE BAY AROUND
15/18Z. IT IS LIKELY THE MODELS PICKED UP THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFFSHORE YESTERDAY
AND THEN BACKED UP BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BEACH...BUT
NEVERTHELESS WE HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES
WITH MOS TEMPERATURES COOL AND DRY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES. GUIDANCE
CALCULATES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING UNDER A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WAVENUMBER 5 PROGNOSIS WHICH
TENDS TO RETROGRADE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT AROUND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IN THE WAVENUMBER 5 PROG IT
HINTS AT A REX BLOCK...HELPING TO KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IN PLACE...THOUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...THE EDDY KINETIC
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WIND FIELD UNDER THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO DOMINATE AND PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE PHASE WITH THE DETAILS...SO WE LEFT
THE EXTENDED AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z-00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
SAT. HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 20Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z FRI FOR
ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR AFT THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INLAND AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS...MOSTLY FROM
1.5K FT TO 2.5 K FT IN AND AROUND AFT AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFT AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
GENERALLY FROM 15Z THROUGH 00Z SAT. VARIABLE WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 25
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...REFORMING AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HELP BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY...AND 20
TO 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 4 TO 6 FEET
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT ON FRI...AND 4 TO 6 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 5 TO 7
FEET FROM 20 TO 60 NM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SHIFTS SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO ALLOW REGIONAL DRYING OUT
TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT WITHOUT HUMIDITY MEETING FIRE
HEADLINE CRITERIA. DISPERSION LOW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MODERATE ELSEWHERE. DISPERSION AFTER FRIDAY MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  88  69  86 /  20  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   74  89  72  87 /  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      73  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  20
EVERGREEN   68  90  64  88 /  20  40  20  10
WAYNESBORO  65  90  64  89 /  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      67  90  64  89 /  20  30  20  05
CRESTVIEW   67  91  65  89 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE REQUIRED.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-151200-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FROM 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON AREA BAYS AND ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD...RANGING FROM
AROUND 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND NEAR 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. ENTERING THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO MOSTLY BE
UNCHANGED...BUT WIND DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ057-058-060-150045-
BUTLER AL-COVINGTON AL-CRENSHAW AL-
639 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER...COVINGTON AND SOUTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

AT 638 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
OPP...OR NEAR BABBIE...AND MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY. STORMS WERE
BUILDING WESTWARD.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HORN HILL...          RUTLEDGE...           LUVERNE...
  DOZIER...             BRANTLEY...           SANFORD...
  ROSE HILL...          RIVER FALLS...        RED LEVEL...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL STORMS PASS. SMALL HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING IN THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY SOON BE NEEDED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>