Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WEATHER PRETTY MUCH BEHAVING AS ADVERTISED THUS FAR TODAY.
CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF FLORIDA...WHILE LDAR/NLDN SHOWS LTG ACTIVITY IN THE MLB
CWA HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES (EXCEPT FOR THE
SMALL/BRIEF TS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP OVER INTERIOR VOLUSIA CO.)
STRATIFORM ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAVE BEEN
FALLING MOSTLY AS EITHER VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO
EVAPORATE INTO THE LAYER OF VERY LOW RH BETWEEN H80-H50. OVERCAST
SKIES HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE
THERE WAS A BIT OF SUN AND WARMER TEMPS EARLIER AND NOW JUST OCNL
THIN SPOTS ALLOWING THE SUN TO PEEK OUT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...THINK ITS PRUDENT TO
GO WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO COVER THE HIGHER LATE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES. CELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE
SLOWER TO TAPER OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.

THU...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 CWA ON THU ON LIGHT W-NW WINDS.
THIS WILL CONFINE LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES...
AND ACTIVITY THERE SHOULD BE AIDED BY SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION
AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE M80S COAST AND U80S INLAND
THANKS TO QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO THE OVERCAST CONDS
TODAY.

FRI-SAT...WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY A LARGE VORTEX AT MID/UPPER LEVELS AS IT TREKS FROM
MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE WEEK. EC FL WILL BE
LOCATED IN RELATIVELY WARM SWLY FLOW FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES
ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
LOW POP WILL BE MENTIONED FOR ALL AREAS ON FRI WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN MOISTURE. WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOW
MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL COOL INTO THE LWR/MID 80S
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70/LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

SUN-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW REGIME TO EC FL WITH
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPS MODERATED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES FOR NOW...BUT SOME LOW POPS
FOR COASTAL SHOWERS MAY BECOME WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...TS POPPING UP INVOF VRB-FPR-SUA PRODUCING OCNL IFR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 23-24Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHTER
STRATIFORM CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE NORTH ONLY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
AROUND BKN025-030 WITH NOSIG VSBY REDUCTIONS IN PRECIP/VIRGA. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING SWELLS FROM RAFAEL WILL DECREASE FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THRU FRI WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
NNW-N LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  83  67  87 /  30  10  10  20
MCO  65  87  68  88 /  20  10  10  20
MLB  67  85  70  87 /  30  10  10  20
VRB  70  86  70  88 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  64  87  67  88 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  65  86  68  88 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  66  86  69  88 /  20  10  10  20
FPR  69  85  69  87 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/RADAR/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1222 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-171900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1222 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE EASTERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RAFAEL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF THE PULL OF THE
CURRENT...AND THEN SWIM BACK TO SHORE. DO NOT SWIM ALONE.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING STORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING MAKES EVERY THUNDERSTORM A POTENTIAL KILLER.
CEASE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IMMEDIATELY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER
IS HEARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INLAND LAKES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
KISSIMMEE TO PORT CANAVERAL.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE RAFAEL IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS WILL BE ROUGH DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THE
SURF ZONE HAZARDOUS INTO LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

FLZ059-064-171945-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
319 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR STUART.
THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...
JENSEN BEACH AND WAVELAND.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING
ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2720 8017 2720 8019 2719 8018 2715 8022
      2716 8032 2734 8028 2734 8027 2740 8026
      2732 8021 2727 8019 2724 8017 2721 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 180DEG 0KT 2732 8035

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

FLZ053-172115-
OSCEOLA-
422 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER WEST LAKE
TOHO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

ADDITIONAL AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM INCLUDE SAINT
CLOUD...EAST LAKE TOHO...THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE...AND US 192.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2835 8124 2835 8116 2818 8103 2808 8138
      2808 8145 2810 8146 2814 8146 2814 8148
      2823 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 233DEG 8KT 2821 8136

MOSES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
448 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

FLZ047-147-172145-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
448 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER LONE
CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER STORMS ARE LIFTING NORTH NEAR PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE AND THESE
CELLS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COLLIDE OVER CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS WHICH MAY
EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE CANAVERAL GROVES...
ROCKLEDGE....COCOA...COCOA BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL AND MERRITT ISLAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2840 8059 2823 8059 2822 8060 2822 8062
      2828 8061 2831 8065 2829 8066 2822 8064
      2823 8066 2822 8067 2821 8086 2841 8088
      2850 8077 2841 8073 2853 8073 2863 8060
      2858 8056 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 255DEG 12KT 2836 8081

KELLY